May 11, 2021

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

Team Ratings for Postponed Games

Another unusual week. There are two midweek games and the teams involved will be playing later in the week as well. I will give predictions for the weekend games after obtaining the results for the two midweek games.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.03 4.80 2.20
La Rochelle 6.67 2.32 4.40
Clermont Auvergne 5.63 3.22 2.40
Racing-Metro 92 5.19 6.21 -1.00
Lyon Rugby 4.16 5.61 -1.50
Bordeaux-Begles 3.76 2.83 0.90
RC Toulonnais 2.79 3.56 -0.80
Montpellier 2.69 2.30 0.40
Stade Francais Paris 0.26 -3.22 3.50
Castres Olympique -0.03 -0.47 0.40
Brive -2.23 -3.26 1.00
Section Paloise -2.45 -4.48 2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -6.84 -4.13 -2.70
SU Agen -16.06 -4.72 -11.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 157 matches played, 106 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Rugby May 08 37 – 29 0.20 TRUE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux-Begles May 09 22 – 47 -3.70 TRUE
3 Brive vs. Stade Francais Paris May 09 28 – 31 4.00 FALSE
4 Montpellier vs. La Rochelle May 09 32 – 22 0.80 TRUE
5 Racing-Metro 92 vs. Clermont Auvergne May 09 45 – 19 3.60 TRUE
6 RC Toulonnais vs. Stade Toulousain May 09 44 – 10 -0.80 FALSE
7 SU Agen vs. Section Paloise May 09 7 – 47 -6.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Montpellier vs. RC Toulonnais May 12 Montpellier 5.40
2 Brive vs. La Rochelle May 12 La Rochelle -3.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »