Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games
Team Ratings for Postponed Games
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.05 | 2.32 | 4.70 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.29 | 4.80 | 1.50 |
| Clermont Auvergne | 5.64 | 3.22 | 2.40 |
| Racing-Metro 92 | 5.46 | 6.21 | -0.80 |
| Lyon Rugby | 4.56 | 5.61 | -1.10 |
| Bordeaux-Begles | 3.39 | 2.83 | 0.60 |
| Montpellier | 2.53 | 2.30 | 0.20 |
| RC Toulonnais | 2.28 | 3.56 | -1.30 |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.91 | -3.22 | 4.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.34 | -0.47 | 0.80 |
| Brive | -2.08 | -3.26 | 1.20 |
| Section Paloise | -2.72 | -4.48 | 1.80 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -6.09 | -4.13 | -2.00 |
| SU Agen | -16.98 | -4.72 | -12.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 166 matches played, 113 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Section Paloise vs. Racing-Metro 92 | May 15 | 29 – 35 | -2.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Castres Olympique | May 16 | 20 – 16 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Clermont Auvergne vs. RC Toulonnais | May 16 | 25 – 16 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. SU Agen | May 16 | 59 – 0 | 27.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lyon Rugby vs. Brive | May 16 | 24 – 7 | 11.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Francais Paris vs. Montpellier | May 16 | 32 – 10 | 2.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 16 | 28 – 32 | 19.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Postponed Games
Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SU Agen vs. Bordeaux-Begles | May 22 | Bordeaux-Begles | -14.90 |
| 2 | Bordeaux-Begles vs. Montpellier | May 26 | Bordeaux-Begles | 6.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »