United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1
Team Ratings for Week 1
A caveat regarding these predictions. This is a competition where four teams have been added, and there is little information about the performance of those new teams against the existing teams. There is also little information concerning the effect of travel when the new teams are in a different continent. I have used previous form from the Pro14, Rainbow Cup, Super Rugby, and Super Rugby Unlocked but have not been able to tune model parameters using years of past data in the way I usually do, nor obtain initial ratings to my satisfaction. Particularly early in the competition, results may be erratic.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.79 | 14.79 | -0.00 |
| Munster | 10.69 | 10.69 | 0.00 |
| Ulster | 7.41 | 7.41 | -0.00 |
| Glasgow | 3.69 | 3.69 | 0.00 |
| Bulls | 3.65 | 3.65 | 0.00 |
| Edinburgh | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 |
| Connacht | 1.72 | 1.72 | 0.00 |
| Ospreys | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.00 |
| Stormers | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| Sharks | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.00 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -0.11 | -0.11 | -0.00 |
| Scarlets | -0.77 | -0.77 | -0.00 |
| Lions | -3.91 | -3.91 | 0.00 |
| Benetton | -4.50 | -4.50 | -0.00 |
| Dragons | -6.92 | -6.92 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -13.47 | -13.47 | -0.00 |
Predictions for Week 1
Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zebre vs. Lions | Sep 25 | Lions | -3.10 |
| 2 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht | Sep 25 | Cardiff Rugby | 4.70 |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Glasgow | Sep 25 | Ulster | 10.20 |
| 4 | Benetton vs. Stormers | Sep 25 | Benetton | 2.00 |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Scarlets | Sep 26 | Edinburgh | 10.20 |
| 6 | Leinster vs. Bulls | Sep 26 | Leinster | 17.60 |
| 7 | Munster vs. Sharks | Sep 26 | Munster | 17.30 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Ospreys | Sep 26 | Ospreys | -2.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
just want to tell you that week one predictions was spot on!
3 years ago
Yes, all games predicted correctly. Likewise the French Top 14.
However, randomness exists and in the same week I got less than half right in both the English Premiership and New Zealand NPC.
3 years ago