September 28, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.38 14.79 0.60
Munster 11.38 10.69 0.70
Ulster 7.03 7.41 -0.40
Glasgow 4.07 3.69 0.40
Bulls 3.06 3.65 -0.60
Edinburgh 2.34 2.90 -0.60
Connacht 1.06 1.72 -0.70
Ospreys 1.04 0.94 0.10
Cardiff Rugby 0.55 -0.11 0.70
Stormers -0.18 0.00 -0.20
Scarlets -0.21 -0.77 0.60
Sharks -0.77 -0.07 -0.70
Lions -3.11 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.32 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -7.02 -6.92 -0.10
Zebre -14.27 -13.47 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Lions Sep 25 26 – 38 -3.10 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Sep 25 33 – 21 4.70 TRUE
3 Ulster vs. Glasgow Sep 25 35 – 29 10.20 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Sep 25 22 – 18 2.00 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Scarlets Sep 26 26 – 22 10.20 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Bulls Sep 26 31 – 3 17.60 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Sharks Sep 26 42 – 17 17.30 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Ospreys Sep 26 23 – 27 -2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Bulls Oct 02 Connacht 4.50
2 Scarlets vs. Lions Oct 02 Scarlets 9.40
3 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Oct 02 Edinburgh -0.20
4 Dragons vs. Leinster Oct 02 Leinster -15.90
5 Glasgow vs. Sharks Oct 03 Glasgow 11.30
6 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 03 Ulster -14.80
7 Munster vs. Stormers Oct 03 Munster 18.10
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 03 Ospreys 5.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »