October 12, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 4

Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 14.57 14.79 -0.20
Munster 12.41 10.69 1.70
Ulster 8.07 7.41 0.70
Glasgow 3.45 3.69 -0.20
Bulls 2.77 3.65 -0.90
Edinburgh 1.45 2.90 -1.40
Connacht 0.85 1.72 -0.90
Stormers 0.80 0.00 0.80
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Ospreys -0.17 0.94 -1.10
Scarlets -0.70 -0.77 0.10
Lions -3.25 -3.91 0.70
Benetton -4.33 -4.50 0.20
Dragons -4.95 -6.92 2.00
Zebre -15.16 -13.47 -1.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Sharks Oct 09 13 – 27 8.10 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Oct 09 28 – 8 18.70 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 09 43 – 7 36.30 TRUE
4 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 10 13 – 9 14.40 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Dragons Oct 10 22 – 35 14.90 FALSE
6 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 10 20 – 20 8.70 FALSE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Bulls Oct 10 19 – 29 5.20 FALSE
8 Scarlets vs. Munster Oct 10 13 – 43 -4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Stormers Oct 16 Dragons 0.80
2 Ulster vs. Lions Oct 16 Ulster 17.80
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Oct 16 Glasgow -12.10
4 Benetton vs. Ospreys Oct 17 Benetton 2.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Oct 17 Edinburgh 5.20
6 Leinster vs. Scarlets Oct 17 Leinster 21.80
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 17 Cardiff Rugby 6.10
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 17 Munster 16.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »