October 19, 2021

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.28 14.79 0.50
Munster 11.64 10.69 1.00
Ulster 7.91 7.41 0.50
Glasgow 3.35 3.69 -0.30
Bulls 2.61 3.65 -1.00
Connacht 1.62 1.72 -0.10
Edinburgh 1.61 2.90 -1.30
Stormers 1.57 0.00 1.60
Sharks 0.34 -0.07 0.40
Ospreys 0.31 0.94 -0.60
Cardiff Rugby -0.11 -0.11 -0.00
Scarlets -1.41 -0.77 -0.60
Lions -3.08 -3.91 0.80
Benetton -4.81 -4.50 -0.30
Dragons -5.73 -6.92 1.20
Zebre -15.06 -13.47 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Stormers Oct 16 10 – 24 0.80 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Lions Oct 16 26 – 10 17.80 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Glasgow Oct 16 6 – 17 -12.10 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Ospreys Oct 17 26 – 29 2.30 FALSE
5 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Oct 17 17 – 10 5.20 TRUE
6 Leinster vs. Scarlets Oct 17 50 – 15 21.80 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 17 23 – 17 6.10 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 17 20 – 18 16.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 23 Scarlets 9.90
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 23 Edinburgh -10.20
3 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 24 Leinster -5.40
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Oct 24 Cardiff Rugby 10.60
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Oct 24 Ulster -1.30
6 Ospreys vs. Munster Oct 24 Munster -4.80
7 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 05 Lions 1.60
8 Stormers vs. Bulls Feb 05 Stormers 4.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »