May 24, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.59 14.26 2.30
Storm 16.07 19.20 -3.10
Rabbitohs 6.81 15.81 -9.00
Sea Eagles 4.01 10.99 -7.00
Eels 3.44 2.54 0.90
Roosters 1.99 2.23 -0.20
Sharks 0.99 -1.10 2.10
Cowboys 0.00 -12.27 12.30
Raiders -1.02 -1.10 0.10
Broncos -1.08 -8.90 7.80
Titans -4.06 1.05 -5.10
Dragons -7.42 -7.99 0.60
Warriors -7.53 -8.99 1.50
Wests Tigers -9.10 -10.94 1.80
Knights -10.35 -6.54 -3.80
Bulldogs -11.36 -10.25 -1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Broncos May 19 12 – 36 -3.90 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 20 36 – 22 4.00 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles May 20 22 – 20 2.50 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Warriors May 21 24 – 18 5.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Storm May 21 36 – 6 -18.30 FALSE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers May 21 12 – 32 -10.40 TRUE
7 Rabbitohs vs. Raiders May 22 12 – 32 14.70 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Sharks May 22 18 – 25 -1.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Sea Eagles May 26 Storm 15.10
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys May 27 Panthers 19.60
3 Broncos vs. Titans May 27 Broncos 6.00
4 Warriors vs. Knights May 28 Warriors 2.80
5 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 28 Rabbitohs 18.90
6 Sharks vs. Roosters May 28 Sharks 2.00
7 Bulldogs vs. Dragons May 29 Dragons -0.90
8 Raiders vs. Eels May 29 Eels -1.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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