July 5, 2022

NRL Predictions for Round 17

By

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 16.64 14.26 2.40
Storm 14.78 19.20 -4.40
Rabbitohs 6.57 15.81 -9.20
Sea Eagles 5.71 10.99 -5.30
Cowboys 2.99 -12.27 15.30
Roosters 2.98 2.23 0.70
Eels 1.48 2.54 -1.10
Sharks 0.96 -1.10 2.10
Broncos -0.40 -8.90 8.50
Raiders -2.02 -1.10 -0.90
Dragons -5.42 -7.99 2.60
Titans -7.60 1.05 -8.60
Bulldogs -7.92 -10.25 2.30
Knights -8.31 -6.54 -1.80
Warriors -9.90 -8.99 -0.90
Wests Tigers -12.53 -10.94 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 124 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 30 36 – 30 -7.80 FALSE
2 Knights vs. Titans Jul 01 38 – 12 -0.80 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters Jul 01 26 – 18 17.90 TRUE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sharks Jul 02 6 – 18 -4.70 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Broncos Jul 02 40 – 26 5.30 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Jul 02 30 – 12 6.70 TRUE
7 Warriors vs. Wests Tigers Jul 03 22 – 2 6.50 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Raiders Jul 03 12 – 10 -0.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Storm Jul 07 Storm -10.80
2 Knights vs. Rabbitohs Jul 08 Rabbitohs -11.90
3 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 09 Eels -11.00
4 Broncos vs. Dragons Jul 10 Broncos 8.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Sey Sio

    Hi, David.
    Can you please help me predict the total match points for the teams.

    Thanks.

    2 years ago

    • avatar
      David Scott

      No. That is actually a difficult thing to do if I understand correctly what you are asking.
      I have mentioned previously that the distribution of margins is heavy-tailed. The distribution is essentially symmetric however. The distribution of individual scores in a match is not even symmetric: it is bounded below by zero and for modelling purposes unbounded above.
      Any estimate of a team score in a match would be subject to huge variability to the extent that an estimate would be pretty much useless in my view.

      2 years ago