Super 15 Predictions, Week 2
Dr David J Scott
March 01, 2012
Here are the team ratings prior to Week 2, along with the ratings at the start
of the season. Interestingly for 3 teams the ratings are have
not changed. That is because the Rebels had a bye, and for the Stormers versus Hurricanes, I got the margin correct
(rounded to 2 decimal places). My predicted margin was also very close for the
Brumbies versus Force game.
|
Current Rating |
Rating at Season Start |
|
|
Crusaders |
10.29 |
10.46 |
|
Stormers |
6.59 |
6.59 |
|
Reds |
5.71 |
5.03 |
|
Waratahs |
4.30 |
4.98 |
|
Bulls |
3.94 |
4.16 |
|
Blues |
3.04 |
2.87 |
|
Sharks |
1.10 |
0.87 |
|
Hurricanes |
-1.90 |
-1.90 |
|
Cheetahs |
-2.01 |
-1.46 |
|
Chiefs |
-2.21 |
-1.17 |
|
Highlanders |
-4.65 |
-5.69 |
|
Force |
-4.89 |
-4.95 |
|
Brumbies |
-6.72 |
-6.66 |
|
Lions |
-10.27 |
-10.82 |
|
Rebels |
-15.64 |
So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a
success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for the games
so far.
|
Game |
Date |
Score |
Prediction |
Correct |
|
|
1 |
Blues
vs. Crusaders |
Feb
20 |
18 - 19 |
-3.10 |
TRUE
|
|
2 |
Brumbies
vs. Force |
Feb
20 |
19 - 17 |
2.80 |
TRUE
|
|
3 |
Bulls
vs. Sharks |
Feb
20 |
18 - 13 |
7.80 |
TRUE
|
|
4 |
Chiefs
vs. Highlanders |
Feb
20 |
19 - 23 |
9.00 |
FALSE
|
|
5 |
Waratahs vs. Reds |
Feb
20 |
21 - 25 |
4.40 |
FALSE
|
|
6 |
Stormers vs. Hurricanes |
Feb
20 |
39 - 26 |
13.00 |
TRUE
|
|
7 |
Lions
vs. Cheetahs |
Feb
20 |
27 - 25 |
-4.90 |
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the
home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
|
Game |
Date |
Winner |
Prediction |
|
|
1 |
Chiefs
vs. Blues |
Mar
20 |
Blues
|
-0.70 |
|
2 |
Rebels
vs. Waratahs |
Mar
20 |
Waratahs |
-15.40 |
|
3 |
Lions
vs. Hurricanes |
Mar
20 |
Hurricanes
|
-3.90 |
|
4 |
Highlanders
vs. Crusaders |
Mar
20 |
Crusaders
|
-10.40 |
|
5 |
Reds
vs. Force |
Mar
20 |
Reds
|
15.10 |
|
6 |
Cheetahs
vs. Bulls |
Mar
20 |
Bulls
|
-1.40 |
|
7 |
Stormers vs. Sharks |
Mar
20 |
Stormers |