Here are the team ratings prior to Week 3, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
I have created a brief description of the method I use
for predicting rugby games. Go to my Department
home page
to see this.
Current Rating
Rating at Season Start
Crusaders
9.22
10.46
Bulls
6.38
4.16
Stormers
6.03
6.59
Reds
4.90
5.03
Waratahs
4.35
4.98
Blues
1.78
2.87
Sharks
1.66
0.87
Chiefs
-0.95
-1.17
Hurricanes
-2.05
-1.90
Highlanders
-3.57
-5.69
Force
-4.08
-4.95
Cheetahs
-4.45
-1.46
Brumbies
-6.72
-6.66
Lions
-10.12
-10.82
Rebels
-15.68
-15.64
Performance So Far
So far there have been 14 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for the games so far.
Game
Date
Score
Prediction
Correct
1
Blues vs. Crusaders
Feb 24
18 - 19
-3.10
TRUE
2
Brumbies vs. Force
Feb 24
19 - 17
2.80
TRUE
3
Bulls vs. Sharks
Feb 24
18 - 13
7.80
TRUE
4
Chiefs vs. Highlanders
Feb 25
19 - 23
9.00
FALSE
5
Waratahs vs. Reds
Feb 25
21 - 25
4.40
FALSE
6
Stormers vs. Hurricanes
Feb 25
39 - 26
13.00
TRUE
7
Lions vs. Cheetahs
Feb 25
27 - 25
-4.90
FALSE
8
Chiefs vs. Blues
Mar 02
29 - 14
-0.70
FALSE
9
Rebels vs. Waratahs
Mar 02
19 - 35
-15.40
TRUE
10
Lions vs. Hurricanes
Mar 02
28 - 30
-3.90
TRUE
11
Highlanders vs. Crusaders
Mar 03
27 - 24
-10.40
FALSE
12
Reds vs. Force
Mar 03
25 - 20
15.10
TRUE
13
Cheetahs vs. Bulls
Mar 03
19 - 51
-1.40
TRUE
14
Stormers vs. Sharks
Mar 03
15 - 12
10.00
TRUE
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game
Date
Winner
Prediction
1
Crusaders vs. Chiefs
Mar 09
Crusaders
14.70
2
Force vs. Hurricanes
Mar 09
Force
2.50
3
Brumbies vs. Cheetahs
Mar 10
Brumbies
2.20
4
Highlanders vs. Waratahs
Mar 10
Waratahs
-3.40
5
Reds vs. Rebels
Mar 10
Reds
25.10
6
Sharks vs. Lions
Mar 10
Sharks
16.30
7
Bulls vs. Blues
Mar 10
Bulls
9.10
Source File: PredictGames.R
(Page generated on Wed Mar 07 09:30:00 2012 by hwriter 1.3)