Posts from April 2019 (22)

April 2, 2019

Super Rugby Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.15 17.67 -0.50
Hurricanes 7.75 9.43 -1.70
Lions 5.10 8.28 -3.20
Chiefs 4.80 8.56 -3.80
Highlanders 3.09 4.01 -0.90
Waratahs 0.91 2.00 -1.10
Sharks 0.17 0.45 -0.30
Stormers -0.22 -0.39 0.20
Bulls -0.80 -3.79 3.00
Brumbies -1.29 0.00 -1.30
Jaguares -1.50 -0.26 -1.20
Blues -1.87 -3.42 1.60
Rebels -3.46 -7.26 3.80
Reds -6.59 -8.19 1.60
Sunwolves -12.25 -16.08 3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 29 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Mar 29 8 – 32 -3.40 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Sunwolves Mar 29 29 – 31 19.80 FALSE
3 Blues vs. Stormers Mar 30 24 – 9 0.60 TRUE
4 Reds vs. Rebels Mar 30 13 – 32 3.00 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Bulls Mar 30 16 – 19 5.50 FALSE
6 Jaguares vs. Chiefs Mar 30 27 – 30 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 05 Hurricanes -1.20
2 Reds vs. Stormers Apr 05 Stormers -2.40
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 05 Lions 8.40
4 Crusaders vs. Brumbies Apr 06 Crusaders 22.40
5 Blues vs. Waratahs Apr 06 Blues 1.20
6 Rebels vs. Sunwolves Apr 06 Rebels 12.80
7 Bulls vs. Jaguares Apr 06 Bulls 4.70

 

NRL Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 8.89 6.03 2.90
Roosters 7.73 8.72 -1.00
Rabbitohs 5.65 3.89 1.80
Sharks 4.87 3.90 1.00
Broncos 2.76 2.63 0.10
Raiders 1.91 1.81 0.10
Dragons -0.88 0.06 -0.90
Cowboys -2.03 0.15 -2.20
Panthers -2.26 0.93 -3.20
Warriors -2.81 -0.27 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.11 -0.61 -2.50
Eels -3.60 -6.17 2.60
Sea Eagles -3.70 -5.61 1.90
Wests Tigers -4.01 -5.57 1.60
Titans -4.50 -3.36 -1.10
Knights -6.89 -8.51 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Dragons Mar 28 24 – 25 7.90 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Knights Mar 29 17 – 10 12.60 TRUE
3 Eels vs. Roosters Mar 29 18 – 32 -7.40 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Mar 30 46 – 12 -1.30 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Sharks Mar 30 16 – 42 -0.30 TRUE
6 Panthers vs. Storm Mar 30 2 – 32 -4.60 TRUE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs Mar 31 8 – 22 4.70 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Titans Mar 31 28 – 20 14.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Broncos Apr 04 Roosters 8.00
2 Warriors vs. Titans Apr 05 Warriors 6.20
3 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Panthers 4.70
4 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Apr 06 Rabbitohs -6.30
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Apr 06 Raiders -0.90
6 Eels vs. Sharks Apr 06 Sharks -5.50
7 Storm vs. Bulldogs Apr 07 Storm 15.00
8 Knights vs. Dragons Apr 07 Dragons -3.00

 

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