December 24, 2025

NFL Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with the game, I did add a special home ground advantage for the home team when the game was played on a Thursday. The logic for that was the reduced number of away fans who might travel on a Thursday and the limited time the away team might have to accustom to a different field. That said, I don’t see a big effect in the data for those games.

What is notable about the results is that these games are hard to predict. One marker for this is the limited range of the current ratings, despite there being 32 teams. For the current predictions, the range is 16.52 compared to 26.66 for the Rugby Premiership where there are only 10 teams.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rams 9.12 3.32 5.80
Seahawks 8.19 1.60 6.60
Lions 7.49 9.26 -1.80
Packers 6.15 5.92 0.20
Bills 4.63 8.28 -3.70
Patriots 4.50 -6.88 11.40
Chargers 4.02 2.67 1.30
Texans 3.98 0.65 3.30
49ers 3.12 -3.05 6.20
Eagles 2.35 12.46 -10.10
Jaguars 2.35 -6.28 8.60
Steelers 1.77 -0.33 2.10
Ravens 1.37 11.27 -9.90
Broncos 0.44 3.65 -3.20
Bears 0.32 -3.03 3.40
Chiefs 0.18 3.00 -2.80
Bengals 0.13 3.45 -3.30
Vikings -0.01 2.67 -2.70
Colts -0.36 -5.52 5.20
Falcons -2.36 -3.22 0.90
Dolphins -2.83 0.72 -3.60
Cowboys -3.30 -3.23 -0.10
Saints -3.71 -5.63 1.90
Buccaneers -4.35 3.86 -8.20
Browns -4.40 -9.54 5.10
Raiders -4.97 -5.45 0.50
Panthers -5.80 -7.28 1.50
Commanders -5.95 2.74 -8.70
Giants -5.99 -7.54 1.50
Cardinals -6.37 0.58 -7.00
Titans -6.46 -9.40 2.90
Jets -7.40 -3.87 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 240 matches played, 146 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Seahawks vs. Rams Dec 18 38 – 37 -0.30 FALSE
2 Ravens vs. Patriots Dec 21 24 – 28 -1.40 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Buccaneers Dec 21 23 – 20 -1.80 FALSE
4 Browns vs. Bills Dec 21 20 – 23 -10.00 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Chargers Dec 21 17 – 34 -3.80 TRUE
6 Saints vs. Jets Dec 21 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Giants vs. Vikings Dec 21 13 – 16 -5.70 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Chiefs Dec 21 26 – 9 -10.30 FALSE
9 Cardinals vs. Falcons Dec 21 19 – 26 -1.50 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Dec 21 20 – 34 2.10 FALSE
11 Lions vs. Steelers Dec 21 24 – 29 9.40 FALSE
12 Texans vs. Raiders Dec 21 23 – 21 13.00 TRUE
13 Dolphins vs. Bengals Dec 21 21 – 45 2.60 FALSE
14 Bears vs. Packers Dec 21 22 – 16 -7.40 FALSE
15 Commanders vs. Eagles Dec 21 18 – 29 -5.90 TRUE
16 Colts vs. 49ers Dec 22 27 – 48 1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 Cowboys -1.70
2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 Lions -6.50
3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 Chiefs 0.70
4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 Steelers -5.20
5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 Jaguars -1.70
6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 Dolphins 2.50
7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 Patriots -10.90
8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 Saints -1.80
9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 Bills 3.30
10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 49ers 3.80
11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 Packers 5.80
12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 Chargers 1.00
13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 Rams -10.50
14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 Seahawks -13.00
15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 Bengals 7.50
16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 Raiders 2.00

 

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December 23, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 8.99 13.41 -4.40
Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70
Glasgow 7.86 6.18 1.70
Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40
Munster 4.45 3.65 0.80
Edinburgh 2.64 2.67 -0.00
Ulster 0.12 -3.24 3.40
Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00
Connacht -0.66 -1.39 0.70
Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50
Scarlets -1.41 -0.54 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.19 -2.74 0.50
Ospreys -3.28 -2.15 -1.10
Benetton -4.90 -2.32 -2.60
Zebre -11.24 -11.02 -0.20
Dragons -13.21 -15.66 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 20 17 – 21 2.70 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 20 24 – 20 11.90 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 34 – 27 12.30 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 21 21 – 15 9.00 TRUE
5 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 21 24 – 12 5.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 21 21 – 12 -6.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Munster Dec 21 10 – 26 1.10 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Dec 21 48 – 28 -8.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 13.00
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 3.90
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Dec 28 Stormers -1.50
4 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 28 Lions 3.00
5 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 Benetton -4.30
6 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 Glasgow -3.20
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 Connacht 1.20
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 Leinster -2.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.48 11.56 1.90
Bordeaux Begles 5.15 4.78 0.40
Section Paloise 4.56 2.21 2.40
Toulon 3.23 3.49 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 2.90 1.22 1.70
Clermont 2.42 1.88 0.50
Racing 92 1.77 1.88 -0.10
Stade Francais 1.14 -2.17 3.30
Montpellier 1.09 -0.21 1.30
Bayonne -0.03 1.48 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.17 0.59 -0.80
Lyon -1.36 -0.45 -0.90
USA Perpignan -6.79 -3.37 -3.40
Montauban -14.51 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 21 19 – 41 -7.30 TRUE
2 Montauban vs. Section Paloise Dec 21 17 – 53 -11.00 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 21 33 – 31 8.50 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Dec 21 20 – 20 6.70 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Dec 21 49 – 17 7.90 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Dec 21 26 – 20 -3.40 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 22 46 – 7 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 28 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 28 Castres Olympique 7.70
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 28 Clermont 3.80
4 Racing 92 vs. Montauban Dec 28 Racing 92 22.80
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Dec 29 Section Paloise 10.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 29 Stade Toulousain 17.10
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Dec 29 Toulon 16.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.66 10.30 3.40
Bristol 6.46 3.66 2.80
Saracens 6.38 5.03 1.30
Leicester Tigers 5.24 5.55 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 3.26 -4.58 7.80
Sale Sharks 3.08 6.70 -3.60
Northampton Saints 0.84 -1.47 2.30
Gloucester -2.53 4.13 -6.70
Harlequins -5.53 -3.02 -2.50
Newcastle Red Bulls -23.00 -18.45 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 20 45 – 14 11.90 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 21 47 – 21 1.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 21 24 – 30 12.90 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 21 14 – 40 -1.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bath Dec 22 14 – 50 -28.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Dec 27 Sale Sharks 15.60
2 Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 28 Bristol 36.50
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Dec 28 Saracens -1.90
4 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Dec 28 Bath 19.80
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Exeter Chiefs 5.00

 

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December 2, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.51 13.41 -3.90
Stormers 9.49 4.17 5.30
Glasgow 7.18 6.18 1.00
Bulls 6.27 8.86 -2.60
Munster 3.53 3.65 -0.10
Edinburgh 3.32 2.67 0.60
Connacht 0.69 -1.39 2.10
Ulster -0.40 -3.24 2.80
Lions -0.82 -1.19 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -1.45 -2.74 1.30
Sharks -2.11 1.29 -3.40
Scarlets -2.15 -0.54 -1.60
Ospreys -2.35 -2.15 -0.20
Benetton -4.57 -2.32 -2.30
Zebre -11.57 -11.02 -0.60
Dragons -14.56 -15.66 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 29 10 – 24 -17.90 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Nov 29 47 – 13 8.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Nov 30 33 – 43 11.30 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 30 14 – 29 -1.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Nov 30 19 – 17 14.10 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Stormers Nov 30 21 – 27 2.10 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Nov 30 44 – 17 7.80 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Nov 30 23 – 0 -5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 20 Cardiff Rugby 2.70
2 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 20 Leinster 11.90
3 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 Stormers 12.30
4 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 21 Benetton 9.00
5 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 21 Glasgow 5.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 21 Bulls -6.40
7 Ospreys vs. Munster Dec 21 Ospreys 1.10
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Dec 21 Connacht -8.20

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.97 11.56 1.40
Toulon 4.21 3.49 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.18 4.78 -0.60
Section Paloise 3.77 2.21 1.60
Clermont 2.78 1.88 0.90
Stade Rochelais 2.14 1.22 0.90
Stade Francais 1.54 -2.17 3.70
Montpellier 1.48 -0.21 1.70
Racing 92 1.37 1.88 -0.50
Bayonne 0.73 1.48 -0.70
Castres Olympique -0.56 0.59 -1.20
Lyon -0.84 -0.45 -0.40
USA Perpignan -7.15 -3.37 -3.80
Montauban -13.72 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Nov 30 22 – 20 8.90 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Nov 30 23 – 7 12.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Nov 30 36 – 32 8.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 30 28 – 24 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Nov 30 48 – 24 17.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Montauban Nov 30 54 – 28 24.20 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 01 53 – 33 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 21 Stade Toulousain -7.30
2 Montauban vs. Section Paloise Dec 21 Section Paloise -11.00
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 21 Montpellier 8.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Dec 21 Stade Francais 6.70
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Dec 21 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Dec 21 Clermont -3.40
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 22 Bordeaux Begles 6.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.04 10.30 2.70
Saracens 7.79 5.03 2.80
Sale Sharks 4.89 6.70 -1.80
Bristol 4.68 3.66 1.00
Leicester Tigers 3.82 5.55 -1.70
Exeter Chiefs 1.85 -4.58 6.40
Northampton Saints -0.96 -1.47 0.50
Gloucester -1.11 4.13 -5.20
Harlequins -3.75 -3.02 -0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -22.38 -18.45 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 29 17 – 39 -18.50 TRUE
2 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 29 26 – 27 12.10 FALSE
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Nov 30 26 – 15 9.30 TRUE
4 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Nov 30 46 – 12 9.00 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Bath Dec 01 29 – 36 3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 20 Leicester Tigers 11.90
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 21 Northampton Saints 1.20
3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 21 Saracens 12.90
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 21 Bristol -1.40
5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bath Dec 22 Bath -28.40

 

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November 24, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.57 11.56 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.19 4.78 -0.60
Toulon 4.10 3.49 0.60
Section Paloise 3.31 2.21 1.10
Clermont 3.03 1.88 1.10
Stade Rochelais 2.60 1.22 1.40
Racing 92 1.77 1.88 -0.10
Montpellier 1.47 -0.21 1.70
Stade Francais 1.28 -2.17 3.50
Bayonne 1.14 1.48 -0.30
Castres Olympique -0.76 0.59 -1.40
Lyon -1.26 -0.45 -0.80
USA Perpignan -6.95 -3.37 -3.60
Montauban -13.61 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Nov 22 33 – 34 8.10 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 23 43 – 24 1.00 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 23 7 – 49 -18.20 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Nov 23 47 – 27 6.10 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 23 17 – 19 10.80 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 23 0 – 28 -0.20 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 24 51 – 24 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Nov 30 Bayonne 8.90
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Nov 30 Castres Olympique 12.70
3 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Nov 30 Clermont 8.20
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 30 Montpellier 3.80
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Nov 30 Stade Toulousain 17.30
6 Toulon vs. Montauban Nov 30 Toulon 24.20
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 01 Section Paloise 7.20

 

November 16, 2025

50-year mortgages and avocado toast

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Sometimes society or government faces a problem where not enough money is being spent on something.  Kiwis on average aren’t allocating enough money to retirement, or councils aren’t investing enough money on water infrastructure. In that scenario, you want to spend more money.  Kiwisaver was supposed to get people to save more. Making people save more was the initial effort of the “nudge” industry. No-one seems to really know how to make councils plan for water infrastructure,  but it would be nice if we could.

The housing industry is not like that. The problem with housing prices is not that we are spending too little on houses. We (collectively) are spending too much on houses. That’s why avocado toast is not a housing issue* — if abolishing avocado toast would increase total expenditure on housing, we’d be worse off, not better off.

This week, in the US, 50-year fixed mortgages have been proposed.  A 50-year mortage would increase the amount you could spend on a house for a given level of savings and income (at the cost of dramatically reducing its value as an investment). If the problem with housing were insufficient money being spent this might help, but that’s not the problem.  A change in financing that lets people bid more for houses doesn’t help.  Like abolishing avocado toast, extending mortgage terms is trying to solve the wrong problem.  Unlike abolishing avocado toast, it might have a real effect on the market.

 

 

 

* and because the basic arithmetic doesn’t make sense, but that’s a different post

November 11, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

I missed predicting the postponed game last week. The result of that game means some fairly small adjustments to the ratings for Toulon and Stade Rochelais. For completeness here is my prediction for the postponed game, following the updated predictions for Round 10.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.81 11.56 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.54 4.78 -0.20
Toulon 4.28 3.49 0.80
Stade Rochelais 3.66 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.64 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.96 2.21 0.80
Bayonne 1.64 1.48 0.20
Racing 92 1.28 1.88 -0.60
Montpellier 0.61 -0.21 0.80
Stade Francais 0.50 -2.17 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.22 0.59 -1.80
Lyon -1.86 -0.45 -1.40
USA Perpignan -6.09 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Montauban Nov 02 49 – 7 19.50 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 26 – 28 1.10 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 02 7 – 9 4.20 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 02 27 – 23 16.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 29 – 17 18.60 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 54 – 21 11.20 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Nov 03 33 – 6 7.60 TRUE

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 09 Toulon 7.10
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