Posts from October 2019 (25)

October 4, 2019

Pro14 Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.02 12.20 -0.20
Munster 11.04 10.73 0.30
Glasgow Warriors 8.45 9.66 -1.20
Scarlets 3.93 3.91 0.00
Connacht 2.66 2.68 -0.00
Ulster 2.58 1.89 0.70
Ospreys 2.11 2.80 -0.70
Edinburgh 1.70 1.24 0.50
Cardiff Blues 0.11 0.54 -0.40
Treviso -1.15 -1.33 0.20
Cheetahs -2.18 -3.38 1.20
Dragons -9.62 -9.31 -0.30
Southern Kings -14.27 -14.70 0.40
Zebre -17.39 -16.93 -0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs vs. Glasgow Warriors Sep 28 48 – 14 -6.50 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Sep 28 38 – 14 5.60 TRUE
3 Southern Kings vs. Cardiff Blues Sep 29 27 – 31 -8.70 TRUE
4 Munster vs. Dragons Sep 29 39 – 9 26.50 TRUE
5 Treviso vs. Leinster Sep 29 27 – 32 -7.00 TRUE
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Sep 29 18 – 10 7.70 TRUE
7 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Sep 29 50 – 15 24.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow Warriors vs. Scarlets Oct 05 Glasgow Warriors 11.00
2 Leinster vs. Ospreys Oct 05 Leinster 16.40
3 Southern Kings vs. Munster Oct 06 Munster -18.80
4 Zebre vs. Dragons Oct 06 Dragons -1.30
5 Cardiff Blues vs. Edinburgh Oct 06 Cardiff Blues 4.90
6 Cheetahs vs. Ulster Oct 06 Cheetahs 1.70
7 Connacht vs. Treviso Oct 06 Connacht 10.30

 

Pro14 Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.20 12.20 -0.00
Munster 10.73 10.73 0.00
Glasgow Warriors 9.66 9.66 0.00
Scarlets 3.91 3.91 0.00
Ospreys 2.80 2.80 -0.00
Connacht 2.68 2.68 -0.00
Ulster 1.89 1.89 -0.00
Edinburgh 1.24 1.24 -0.00
Cardiff Blues 0.54 0.54 0.00
Treviso -1.33 -1.33 0.00
Cheetahs -3.38 -3.38 -0.00
Dragons -9.31 -9.31 0.00
Southern Kings -14.70 -14.70 -0.00
Zebre -16.93 -16.93 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Glasgow Warriors Sep 28 Glasgow Warriors -6.50
2 Ulster vs. Ospreys Sep 28 Ulster 5.60
3 Southern Kings vs. Cardiff Blues Sep 29 Cardiff Blues -8.70
4 Munster vs. Dragons Sep 29 Munster 26.50
5 Treviso vs. Leinster Sep 29 Leinster -7.00
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Sep 29 Scarlets 7.70
7 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Sep 29 Edinburgh 24.70

 

October 3, 2019

Rugby World Cup Predictions 4

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Team Ratings 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
New Zealand 27.80 27.60 0.20
England 19.27 19.78 -0.50
South Africa 17.93 18.51 -0.60
Wales 12.66 12.72 -0.10
Ireland 11.59 12.12 -0.50
Australia 9.02 8.70 0.30
France 7.05 7.11 -0.10
Scotland 5.54 5.44 0.10
Argentina 3.52 4.15 -0.60
Japan -6.99 -7.67 0.70
Italy -7.70 -8.57 0.90
Fiji -8.61 -5.27 -3.30
Samoa -13.40 -11.89 -1.50
Georgia -16.37 -17.43 1.10
USA -16.64 -16.38 -0.30
Tonga -19.00 -20.46 1.50
Uruguay -33.65 -35.67 2.00
Canada -34.17 -32.45 -1.70
Russia -35.51 -36.78 1.30
Namibia -40.57 -41.80 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 90%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Japan vs. Russia Sep 20 30 – 10 35.60 TRUE
2 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 21 39 – 21 14.00 TRUE
3 France vs. Argentina Sep 21 23 – 21 3.00 TRUE
4 New Zealand vs. South Africa Sep 21 23 – 13 9.10 TRUE
5 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 22 47 – 22 33.20 TRUE
6 Ireland vs. Scotland Sep 22 27 – 3 6.70 TRUE
7 England vs. Tonga Sep 22 35 – 3 40.20 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Georgia Sep 23 43 – 14 30.10 TRUE
9 Russia vs. Samoa Sep 24 9 – 34 -23.50 TRUE
10 Fiji vs. Uruguay Sep 25 27 – 30 30.00 FALSE
11 Italy vs. Canada Sep 26 48 – 7 23.10 TRUE
12 England vs. USA Sep 26 45 – 7 35.40 TRUE
13 Argentina vs. Tonga Sep 28 28 – 12 24.00 TRUE
14 Japan vs. Ireland Sep 28 19 – 12 -16.30 FALSE
15 South Africa vs. Namibia Sep 28 57 – 3 59.50 TRUE
16 Georgia vs. Uruguay Sep 29 33 – 7 15.40 TRUE
17 Australia vs. Wales Sep 29 25 – 29 -3.60 TRUE
18 Scotland vs. Samoa Sep 30 34 – 0 15.60 TRUE
19 France vs. USA Oct 02 33 – 9 23.60 TRUE
20 New Zealand vs. Canada Oct 02 63 – 0 61.70 TRUE

 

Predictions 4

Here are the predictions. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Georgia vs. Fiji Oct 03 Fiji -7.80
2 Ireland vs. Russia Oct 03 Ireland 47.10
3 South Africa vs. Italy Oct 04 South Africa 25.60
4 Australia vs. Uruguay Oct 05 Australia 42.70
5 England vs. Argentina Oct 05 England 15.80
6 Japan vs. Samoa Oct 05 Japan 12.90
7 New Zealand vs. Namibia Oct 06 New Zealand 68.40
8 France vs. Tonga Oct 06 France 26.10
9 South Africa vs. Canada Oct 08 South Africa 52.10
10 Argentina vs. USA Oct 09 Argentina 20.20
11 Scotland vs. Russia Oct 09 Scotland 41.10
12 Wales vs. Fiji Oct 09 Wales 21.30
13 Australia vs. Georgia Oct 11 Australia 25.40
14 New Zealand vs. Italy Oct 12 New Zealand 35.50
15 England vs. France Oct 12 England 12.20
16 Ireland vs. Samoa Oct 12 Ireland 25.00
17 Namibia vs. Canada Oct 13 Canada -6.40
18 USA vs. Tonga Oct 13 USA 2.40
19 Wales vs. Uruguay Oct 13 Wales 46.30
20 Japan vs. Scotland Oct 13 Scotland -6.00

 

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October 1, 2019

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 12.73 6.03 6.70
Roosters 12.42 8.72 3.70
Raiders 6.88 1.81 5.10
Rabbitohs 2.85 3.89 -1.00
Eels 2.80 -6.17 9.00
Sharks 1.81 3.90 -2.10
Sea Eagles 1.05 -5.61 6.70
Panthers -0.13 0.93 -1.10
Wests Tigers -0.18 -5.57 5.40
Bulldogs -2.52 -0.61 -1.90
Cowboys -3.95 0.15 -4.10
Warriors -5.17 -0.27 -4.90
Broncos -5.53 2.63 -8.20
Knights -5.92 -8.51 2.60
Dragons -6.14 0.06 -6.20
Titans -12.99 -3.36 -9.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 130 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Rabbitohs Sep 27 16 – 10 7.20 TRUE
2 Roosters vs. Storm Sep 28 14 – 6 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Raiders Oct 06 Roosters 8.50

 

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Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Tasman 19.45 9.00 10.50
Canterbury 13.56 12.92 0.60
Wellington 9.86 10.92 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 7.15 -4.82 12.00
Auckland 6.24 11.57 -5.30
Waikato 3.15 8.24 -5.10
North Harbour 2.53 5.30 -2.80
Hawke’s Bay -2.07 -5.69 3.60
Otago -2.85 -1.49 -1.40
Taranaki -4.61 -5.22 0.60
Counties Manukau -7.99 -1.99 -6.00
Manawatu -12.16 -11.67 -0.50
Northland -12.98 -6.23 -6.70
Southland -20.54 -22.08 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Southland Sep 26 19 – 0 20.10 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Sep 27 40 – 0 12.20 TRUE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 28 51 – 24 10.20 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Northland Sep 28 57 – 36 28.10 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Counties Manukau Sep 28 38 – 5 23.90 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Waikato Sep 29 45 – 35 -4.60 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 29 16 – 29 -10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 Hawke’s Bay -1.90
2 North Harbour vs. Wellington Oct 04 Wellington -3.30
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Manawatu Oct 05 Bay of Plenty 23.30
4 Auckland vs. Southland Oct 05 Auckland 30.80
5 Otago vs. Canterbury Oct 05 Canterbury -12.40
6 Tasman vs. Northland Oct 06 Tasman 36.40
7 Waikato vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Waikato 11.80

 

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