Posts from April 2023 (22)

April 4, 2023

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Crusaders 17.46 17.95 -0.50
Blues 12.31 12.34 -0.00
Chiefs 10.87 8.81 2.10
Hurricanes 10.70 9.59 1.10
Brumbies 6.65 6.64 0.00
Highlanders 3.47 5.04 -1.60
Reds 1.25 1.89 -0.60
Waratahs -1.81 -2.50 0.70
Western Force -5.44 -5.54 0.10
Rebels -5.60 -6.19 0.60
Fijian Drua -9.62 -10.50 0.90
Moana Pasifika -11.60 -8.91 -2.70

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Moana Pasifika vs. Highlanders Mar 31 17 – 45 -10.20 TRUE
2 Reds vs. Crusaders Mar 31 12 – 25 -10.30 TRUE
3 Fijian Drua vs. Rebels Apr 01 38 – 28 -1.50 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues Apr 01 20 – 13 1.50 TRUE
5 Brumbies vs. Waratahs Apr 01 40 – 36 12.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Western Force Apr 02 45 – 42 23.20 TRUE

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Moana Pasifika Apr 07 Crusaders 32.60
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Apr 07 Brumbies -1.90
3 Highlanders vs. Hurricanes Apr 08 Hurricanes -3.70
4 Rebels vs. Blues Apr 08 Blues -12.40

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Pumas 8.53 2.84 5.70
Cheetahs 5.97 4.67 1.30
Griquas 1.07 1.39 -0.30
Sharks -1.65 -1.30 -0.30
Bulls -2.39 3.43 -5.80
Western Province -3.27 -3.24 -0.00
Lions -6.48 -7.79 1.30
Griffons -11.78 -10.00 -1.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griffons vs. Bulls Apr 01 32 – 28 -6.90 FALSE
2 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Apr 01 21 – 61 7.20 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Apr 02 34 – 22 -2.90 FALSE
4 Western Province vs. Griquas Apr 02 13 – 32 2.50 FALSE

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Griquas Apr 08 Bulls 0.50
2 Sharks vs. Pumas Apr 08 Pumas -6.20
3 Western Province vs. Griffons Apr 09 Western Province 12.50
4 Lions vs. Cheetahs Apr 10 Cheetahs -8.40
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