Posts from April 2025 (33)

April 1, 2025

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.73 5.55 8.20
Sale Sharks 4.22 4.73 -0.50
Leicester Tigers 4.03 3.27 0.80
Gloucester 3.42 -9.04 12.50
Bristol 3.07 9.58 -6.50
Northampton Saints 2.23 7.50 -5.30
Harlequins 1.63 -2.73 4.40
Saracens 1.51 9.68 -8.20
Exeter Chiefs -4.48 1.23 -5.70
Newcastle Falcons -18.58 -19.02 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 65 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Mar 29 27 – 24 9.90 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Harlequins Mar 30 47 – 28 18.50 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 30 17 – 15 25.30 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Bristol Mar 30 53 – 28 2.30 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Mar 31 22 – 29 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Apr 19 Northampton Saints -14.30
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Apr 20 Bath -11.70
3 Harlequins vs. Sale Sharks Apr 20 Harlequins 3.90
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Apr 20 Saracens 4.60
5 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Apr 21 Bristol 5.50

 

NRL Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.51 9.29 0.20
Panthers 7.20 8.50 -1.30
Sharks 5.16 5.10 0.10
Roosters 4.38 7.44 -3.10
Sea Eagles 4.11 2.97 1.10
Bulldogs 2.04 0.07 2.00
Cowboys 1.63 4.11 -2.50
Broncos 0.23 -1.82 2.00
Knights -0.88 -0.05 -0.80
Warriors -1.24 -1.68 0.40
Raiders -3.19 -3.61 0.40
Rabbitohs -3.28 -4.35 1.10
Titans -3.63 -5.50 1.90
Dolphins -3.75 -1.96 -1.80
Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20
Eels -5.77 -3.02 -2.80
Wests Tigers -8.17 -10.97 2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Mar 27 28 – 18 -9.20 FALSE
2 Roosters vs. Titans Mar 28 12 – 30 13.50 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Broncos Mar 28 12 – 20 -3.40 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Storm Mar 29 14 – 8 -12.50 FALSE
5 Cowboys vs. Raiders Mar 29 30 – 20 7.40 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Mar 29 6 – 20 8.00 FALSE
7 Sea Eagles vs. Eels Mar 30 26 – 12 12.70 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Mar 30 24 – 26 -3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Raiders vs. Sharks Apr 03 Sharks -5.30
2 Panthers vs. Cowboys Apr 04 Panthers 8.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Apr 04 Roosters -4.70
4 Eels vs. Dragons Apr 05 Eels 1.60
5 Titans vs. Dolphins Apr 05 Titans 3.10
6 Broncos vs. Wests Tigers Apr 05 Broncos 11.40
7 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 06 Storm -2.40
8 Bulldogs vs. Knights Apr 06 Bulldogs 5.90

 

AFL Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawthorn Hawks 24.22 21.95 2.30
Brisbane Lions 19.46 22.65 -3.20
Geelong Cats 17.06 15.04 2.00
Western Bulldogs 13.83 18.20 -4.40
Collingwood 12.95 5.39 7.60
GWS Giants 9.70 9.08 0.60
Adelaide Crows 8.68 2.69 6.00
Sydney Swans 8.31 12.60 -4.30
Port Adelaide Power 3.39 7.63 -4.20
Carlton Blues 2.73 5.01 -2.30
St Kilda Saints 2.41 0.89 1.50
Gold Coast Suns 2.15 -6.41 8.60
Fremantle Dockers 1.29 5.99 -4.70
Melbourne Demons -10.70 -0.21 -10.50
Essendon Bombers -11.08 -10.15 -0.90
North Melbourne -27.64 -37.08 9.40
Richmond Tigers -33.44 -31.00 -2.40
West Coast Eagles -35.71 -34.67 -1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 27 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Mar 27 72 – 60 -6.30 FALSE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Western Bulldogs Mar 28 75 – 83 -12.10 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats Mar 29 70 – 61 5.60 TRUE
4 Melbourne Demons vs. Gold Coast Suns Mar 29 62 – 120 6.40 FALSE
5 St Kilda Saints vs. Richmond Tigers Mar 29 135 – 53 28.80 TRUE
6 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Mar 29 76 – 64 28.10 TRUE
7 Adelaide Crows vs. North Melbourne Mar 30 114 – 78 49.50 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Fremantle Dockers Mar 30 68 – 106 -36.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Collingwood vs. Carlton Blues Apr 03 Collingwood 10.20
2 Geelong Cats vs. Melbourne Demons Apr 04 Geelong Cats 38.80
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Adelaide Crows Apr 05 Gold Coast Suns 4.50
4 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Apr 05 Brisbane Lions -41.90
5 North Melbourne vs. Sydney Swans Apr 05 Sydney Swans -25.00
6 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Apr 06 GWS Giants 56.40
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. St Kilda Saints Apr 06 Port Adelaide Power 12.00
8 Fremantle Dockers vs. Western Bulldogs Apr 06 Western Bulldogs -1.50

 

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