Posts from July 2025 (22)

July 1, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.64 9.29 1.30
Roosters 5.79 7.44 -1.70
Panthers 5.13 8.50 -3.40
Dolphins 3.65 -1.96 5.60
Bulldogs 2.93 0.07 2.90
Sharks 2.43 5.10 -2.70
Sea Eagles 2.17 2.97 -0.80
Raiders 1.65 -3.61 5.30
Broncos 0.17 -1.82 2.00
Warriors -0.07 -1.68 1.60
Cowboys -1.77 4.11 -5.90
Knights -2.78 -0.05 -2.70
Dragons -4.34 -4.55 0.20
Eels -4.62 -3.02 -1.60
Rabbitohs -4.82 -4.35 -0.50
Titans -7.70 -5.50 -2.20
Wests Tigers -8.46 -10.97 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 76 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 8 – 6 5.80 TRUE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jun 27 28 – 10 13.10 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Raiders Jun 27 18 – 22 -0.90 TRUE
4 Broncos vs. Warriors Jun 28 26 – 12 2.60 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Eels Jun 28 34 – 20 2.10 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Jun 28 50 – 28 10.30 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 29 30 – 6 9.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jun 29 24 – 30 -2.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Broncos Jul 04 Bulldogs 5.80
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 05 Raiders 9.00
3 Cowboys vs. Storm Jul 05 Storm -9.40
4 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Jul 06 Roosters 17.30
5 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jul 06 Sea Eagles 10.00

 

AFL Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 24.30 18.20 6.10
Geelong Cats 21.49 15.04 6.50
Adelaide Crows 21.08 2.69 18.40
Collingwood 18.03 5.39 12.60
Hawthorn Hawks 15.86 21.95 -6.10
Brisbane Lions 15.77 22.65 -6.90
Fremantle Dockers 5.47 5.99 -0.50
Gold Coast Suns 4.88 -6.41 11.30
GWS Giants 4.30 9.08 -4.80
Sydney Swans 1.96 12.60 -10.60
Port Adelaide Power -2.24 7.63 -9.90
Melbourne Demons -3.10 -0.21 -2.90
Carlton Blues -4.17 5.01 -9.20
St Kilda Saints -5.91 0.89 -6.80
Essendon Bombers -17.61 -10.15 -7.50
North Melbourne -24.29 -37.08 12.80
West Coast Eagles -32.45 -34.67 2.20
Richmond Tigers -35.75 -31.00 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 134 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues Jun 26 110 – 60 7.10 TRUE
2 Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 27 96 – 105 -12.10 TRUE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 28 104 – 85 19.00 TRUE
4 Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne Jun 28 150 – 65 37.80 TRUE
5 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 28 88 – 59 66.70 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 29 54 – 122 -42.00 TRUE
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 29 81 – 69 24.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs Jul 03 Western Bulldogs -48.60
2 Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood Jul 04 Collingwood -22.20
3 West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants Jul 04 GWS Giants -25.80
4 Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jul 05 Gold Coast Suns -11.50
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Jul 05 Geelong Cats 68.20
6 Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power Jul 05 Brisbane Lions 29.00
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jul 05 Hawthorn Hawks -21.80
8 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Jul 06 Sydney Swans 7.50
9 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jul 06 Adelaide Crows 35.20

 

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