Posts from August 2025 (20)

August 28, 2025

AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 25.92 15.04 10.90
Western Bulldogs 25.54 18.20 7.30
Hawthorn Hawks 21.79 21.95 -0.20
Adelaide Crows 20.54 2.69 17.80
Brisbane Lions 18.32 22.65 -4.30
Gold Coast Suns 12.43 -6.41 18.80
GWS Giants 11.45 9.08 2.40
Collingwood 10.50 5.39 5.10
Fremantle Dockers 7.39 5.99 1.40
Sydney Swans 1.16 12.60 -11.40
Melbourne Demons 0.76 -0.21 1.00
Carlton Blues -4.46 5.01 -9.50
St Kilda Saints -6.98 0.89 -7.90
Port Adelaide Power -12.97 7.63 -20.60
North Melbourne -23.62 -37.08 13.50
Essendon Bombers -27.28 -10.15 -17.10
Richmond Tigers -31.46 -31.00 -0.50
West Coast Eagles -41.44 -34.67 -6.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 145 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Aug 21 56 – 90 -16.70 TRUE
2 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 22 82 – 76 10.90 TRUE
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 89 – 79 6.70 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 23 104 – 93 32.70 TRUE
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 23 100 – 113 -36.70 TRUE
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 23 71 – 67 -13.80 FALSE
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 23 64 – 103 -48.70 TRUE
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Aug 23 51 – 118 -26.00 TRUE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 23 97 – 112 35.90 FALSE
10 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 27 153 – 58 43.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Sept 04 Adelaide Crows 21.00
2 Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 05 Geelong Cats 11.60
3 GWS Giants vs. Hawthorn Hawks Sept 06 GWS Giants 0.70
4 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Sept 06 Fremantle Dockers 6.00

 

August 26, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.33 9.29 1.00
Panthers 7.09 8.50 -1.40
Roosters 6.44 7.44 -1.00
Sharks 3.97 5.10 -1.10
Raiders 3.36 -3.61 7.00
Broncos 3.00 -1.82 4.80
Bulldogs 2.88 0.07 2.80
Sea Eagles 0.64 2.97 -2.30
Dolphins 0.36 -1.96 2.30
Warriors -0.47 -1.68 1.20
Cowboys -1.32 4.11 -5.40
Eels -4.12 -3.02 -1.10
Dragons -4.20 -4.55 0.40
Rabbitohs -4.50 -4.35 -0.20
Wests Tigers -7.40 -10.97 3.60
Knights -7.76 -0.05 -7.70
Titans -8.30 -5.50 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 21 40 – 0 -0.40 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 22 16 – 20 4.60 FALSE
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 20 – 14 11.00 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Aug 23 58 – 30 1.00 TRUE
5 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 23 18 – 32 -3.30 TRUE
6 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 23 30 – 10 -10.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 24 12 – 46 -5.40 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 24 28 – 34 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Panthers Aug 28 Panthers -1.20
2 Warriors vs. Eels Aug 29 Warriors 7.10
3 Storm vs. Roosters Aug 29 Storm 6.90
4 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 30 Raiders 13.80
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Aug 30 Sea Eagles -1.80
6 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 30 Broncos -1.30
7 Sharks vs. Knights Aug 31 Sharks 14.70
8 Dolphins vs. Titans Aug 31 Dolphins 11.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 8.66 5.30 3.40
Canterbury 7.66 4.02 3.60
Bay of Plenty 5.92 6.48 -0.60
Tasman 5.25 3.49 1.80
Waikato 4.31 5.46 -1.20
Wellington 3.48 6.60 -3.10
Hawke’s Bay 2.93 0.68 2.30
Otago 1.09 -1.15 2.20
Auckland -3.30 -0.04 -3.30
Counties Manukau -3.42 -0.26 -3.20
North Harbour -3.45 1.50 -4.90
Southland -5.83 -5.90 0.10
Northland -5.99 -6.54 0.50
Manawatu -11.14 -13.45 2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 21 25 – 30 17.70 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Aug 22 7 – 26 0.90 FALSE
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 23 22 – 23 8.80 FALSE
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 23 19 – 43 -3.00 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 23 24 – 43 9.20 FALSE
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Aug 24 33 – 19 5.50 TRUE
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 24 38 – 28 -14.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 29 Bay of Plenty -6.40
2 Canterbury vs. Manawatu Aug 30 Canterbury 21.80
3 Counties Manukau vs. Taranaki Aug 30 Taranaki -9.10
4 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 30 Hawke’s Bay -5.90
5 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 30 Tasman 7.20
6 Wellington vs. Auckland Aug 31 Wellington 9.80
7 Waikato vs. Southland Aug 31 Waikato 13.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 7.80 10.01 -2.20
Cheetahs 5.05 4.33 0.70
Bulls 4.07 5.94 -1.90
Griquas 1.36 -2.85 4.20
Sharks -0.58 6.68 -7.30
Pumas -0.63 -4.16 3.50
Boland Cavaliers -4.27 -10.00 5.70
Western Province -4.79 -1.94 -2.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 23 26 – 29 9.20 FALSE
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 23 29 – 21 7.60 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 24 47 – 31 -2.10 FALSE
4 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 25 21 – 42 10.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Griquas Aug 30 Cheetahs 7.20
2 Lions vs. Bulls Aug 31 Lions 7.20
3 Sharks vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 31 Sharks 7.20
4 Western Province vs. Pumas Aug 31 Pumas -0.70

 

August 19, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.62 9.29 1.30
Roosters 7.65 7.44 0.20
Panthers 7.54 8.50 -1.00
Sharks 3.97 5.10 -1.10
Raiders 2.91 -3.61 6.50
Bulldogs 2.59 0.07 2.50
Broncos 1.83 -1.82 3.60
Dolphins 1.48 -1.96 3.40
Sea Eagles -0.48 2.97 -3.50
Warriors -1.00 -1.68 0.70
Cowboys -1.60 4.11 -5.70
Dragons -2.66 -4.55 1.90
Eels -5.33 -3.02 -2.30
Rabbitohs -6.05 -4.35 -1.70
Knights -6.59 -0.05 -6.50
Wests Tigers -7.12 -10.97 3.80
Titans -7.77 -5.50 -2.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 14 18 – 22 0.40 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 15 14 – 10 5.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 32 – 12 6.80 TRUE
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 16 54 – 22 13.10 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Dolphins Aug 16 38 – 28 2.50 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 16 20 – 16 -1.30 FALSE
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 26 – 12 -8.60 FALSE
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 17 38 – 4 5.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 21 Dragons -0.40
2 Panthers vs. Raiders Aug 22 Panthers 4.60
3 Storm vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 Storm 11.00
4 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Aug 23 Sea Eagles 1.00
5 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 23 Warriors -3.30
6 Eels vs. Roosters Aug 23 Roosters -10.00
7 Knights vs. Broncos Aug 24 Broncos -5.40
8 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys Aug 24 Cowboys -2.50

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 9.41 5.30 4.10
Bay of Plenty 7.38 6.48 0.90
Canterbury 6.35 4.02 2.30
Wellington 5.04 6.60 -1.60
Hawke’s Bay 4.24 0.68 3.60
Tasman 3.87 3.49 0.40
Waikato 3.56 5.46 -1.90
Otago 0.06 -1.15 1.20
Auckland -1.56 -0.04 -1.50
North Harbour -2.08 1.50 -3.60
Counties Manukau -2.39 -0.26 -2.10
Southland -7.28 -5.90 -1.40
Northland -7.72 -6.54 -1.20
Manawatu -12.71 -13.45 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Southland vs. Manawatu Aug 15 29 – 22 8.90 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Aug 16 7 – 21 6.70 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 16 14 – 28 -6.90 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 16 8 – 50 -3.50 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 16 36 – 22 7.80 TRUE
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 17 41 – 46 10.10 FALSE
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 17 27 – 26 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Aug 21 Bay of Plenty 17.70
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury Aug 22 Hawke’s Bay 0.90
3 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 23 Taranaki 8.80
4 North Harbour vs. Tasman Aug 23 Tasman -3.00
5 Auckland vs. Northland Aug 23 Auckland 9.20
6 Otago vs. Counties Manukau Aug 24 Otago 5.50
7 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 24 Wellington -14.70

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 9.22 10.01 -0.80
Bulls 6.29 5.94 0.30
Cheetahs 3.63 4.33 -0.70
Pumas 0.41 -4.16 4.60
Sharks -0.64 6.68 -7.30
Griquas -0.86 -2.85 2.00
Western Province -4.73 -1.94 -2.80
Boland Cavaliers -5.31 -10.00 4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 16 26 – 17 1.00 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Lions Aug 16 35 – 36 -7.00 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Western Province Aug 17 31 – 24 13.80 TRUE
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Bulls Aug 18 28 – 20 -11.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 23 Pumas 9.20
2 Sharks vs. Western Province Aug 23 Sharks 7.60
3 Cheetahs vs. Lions Aug 24 Lions -2.10
4 Bulls vs. Griquas Aug 25 Bulls 10.70

 

AFL Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Western Bulldogs 28.93 18.20 10.70
Geelong Cats 27.09 15.04 12.10
Adelaide Crows 22.31 2.69 19.60
Hawthorn Hawks 22.18 21.95 0.20
Brisbane Lions 17.93 22.65 -4.70
GWS Giants 13.10 9.08 4.00
Collingwood 11.09 5.39 5.70
Gold Coast Suns 10.42 -6.41 16.80
Fremantle Dockers 4.00 5.99 -2.00
Melbourne Demons 0.17 -0.21 0.40
Sydney Swans -1.66 12.60 -14.30
Carlton Blues -5.81 5.01 -10.80
St Kilda Saints -8.63 0.89 -9.50
Port Adelaide Power -14.36 7.63 -22.00
Essendon Bombers -22.52 -10.15 -12.40
North Melbourne -25.39 -37.08 11.70
Richmond Tigers -32.63 -31.00 -1.60
West Coast Eagles -38.62 -34.67 -4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 197 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 15 75 – 77 -16.20 TRUE
2 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 15 44 – 101 5.10 FALSE
3 Gold Coast Suns vs. GWS Giants Aug 16 76 – 111 15.00 FALSE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 16 118 – 64 14.00 TRUE
5 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 16 92 – 56 19.40 TRUE
6 Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Aug 16 59 – 56 25.60 TRUE
7 North Melbourne vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 17 135 – 87 5.40 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. Geelong Cats Aug 17 68 – 111 -13.50 TRUE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 17 126 – 32 75.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Aug 21 Carlton Blues -16.70
2 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 22 Collingwood 10.90
3 Brisbane Lions vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 Brisbane Lions 6.70
4 GWS Giants vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 23 GWS Giants 32.70
5 North Melbourne vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 23 Adelaide Crows -36.70
6 Port Adelaide Power vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 23 Gold Coast Suns -13.80
7 Richmond Tigers vs. Geelong Cats Aug 23 Geelong Cats -48.70
8 West Coast Eagles vs. Sydney Swans Aug 23 Sydney Swans -26.00
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 23 Western Bulldogs 35.90
10 Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon Bombers Aug 27 Gold Coast Suns 43.90

 

August 12, 2025

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 10.36 9.29 1.10
Panthers 7.80 8.50 -0.70
Roosters 7.02 7.44 -0.40
Bulldogs 3.22 0.07 3.10
Sharks 3.13 5.10 -2.00
Raiders 2.91 -3.61 6.50
Dolphins 1.88 -1.96 3.80
Broncos 1.43 -1.82 3.20
Sea Eagles 0.49 2.97 -2.50
Warriors -0.89 -1.68 0.80
Cowboys -2.76 4.11 -6.90
Dragons -2.77 -4.55 1.80
Eels -5.03 -3.02 -2.00
Knights -5.43 -0.05 -5.40
Rabbitohs -6.35 -4.35 -2.00
Titans -6.93 -5.50 -1.40
Wests Tigers -8.08 -10.97 2.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 109 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos Aug 07 22 – 2 11.00 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Panthers Aug 08 12 – 48 -7.90 TRUE
3 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 28 – 12 4.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 09 22 – 14 -4.10 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Roosters Aug 09 12 – 64 1.70 FALSE
6 Bulldogs vs. Warriors Aug 09 32 – 14 6.50 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 10 18 – 20 3.00 FALSE
8 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 10 19 – 18 0.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 14 Panthers 0.40
2 Warriors vs. Dragons Aug 15 Warriors 5.40
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 15 Roosters 6.80
4 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 16 Sharks 13.10
5 Broncos vs. Dolphins Aug 16 Broncos 2.50
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 16 Eels -1.30
7 Wests Tigers vs. Sea Eagles Aug 17 Sea Eagles -8.60
8 Cowboys vs. Knights Aug 17 Cowboys 5.70
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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bay of Plenty 8.74 6.48 2.30
Taranaki 7.18 5.30 1.90
Wellington 6.09 6.60 -0.50
Canterbury 4.99 4.02 1.00
Waikato 4.28 5.46 -1.20
Hawke’s Bay 3.50 0.68 2.80
Tasman 3.02 3.49 -0.50
Auckland 0.66 -0.04 0.70
Otago -0.99 -1.15 0.20
North Harbour -1.34 1.50 -2.80
Counties Manukau -3.11 -0.26 -2.80
Northland -6.87 -6.54 -0.30
Southland -7.06 -5.90 -1.20
Manawatu -12.93 -13.45 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Southland Aug 08 22 – 17 2.60 TRUE
2 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Aug 09 24 – 46 -3.00 TRUE
3 Waikato vs. Wellington Aug 09 24 – 35 3.20 FALSE
4 Tasman vs. Manawatu Aug 09 49 – 17 16.80 TRUE
5 Canterbury vs. Auckland Aug 09 19 – 15 8.40 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 10 22 – 39 -7.40 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 10 21 – 27 -0.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Manawatu Aug 15 Southland 8.90
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury Aug 16 Bay of Plenty 6.70
3 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 16 Tasman -6.90
4 Auckland vs. Taranaki Aug 16 Taranaki -3.50
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 16 Hawke’s Bay 7.80
6 Wellington vs. Otago Aug 17 Wellington 10.10
7 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 17 Waikato 10.40

 

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