December 2, 2025
Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 13.04 | 10.30 | 2.70 |
| Saracens | 7.79 | 5.03 | 2.80 |
| Sale Sharks | 4.89 | 6.70 | -1.80 |
| Bristol | 4.68 | 3.66 | 1.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.82 | 5.55 | -1.70 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 1.85 | -4.58 | 6.40 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.96 | -1.47 | 0.50 |
| Gloucester | -1.11 | 4.13 | -5.20 |
| Harlequins | -3.75 | -3.02 | -0.70 |
| Newcastle Red Bulls | -22.38 | -18.45 | -3.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers | Nov 29 | 17 – 39 | -18.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 29 | 26 – 27 | 12.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Gloucester vs. Harlequins | Nov 30 | 26 – 15 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 30 | 46 – 12 | 9.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Saracens vs. Bath | Dec 01 | 29 – 36 | 3.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester | Dec 20 | Leicester Tigers | 11.90 |
| 2 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 21 | Northampton Saints | 1.20 |
| 3 | Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 21 | Saracens | 12.90 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Bristol | Dec 21 | Bristol | -1.40 |
| 5 | Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bath | Dec 22 | Bath | -28.40 |