Posts written by David Scott (1539)

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation.

September 27, 2022

NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.29 14.26 -2.00
Storm 11.21 19.20 -8.00
Rabbitohs 9.35 15.81 -6.50
Roosters 7.64 2.23 5.40
Eels 7.48 2.54 4.90
Cowboys 6.23 -12.27 18.50
Sharks 4.50 -1.10 5.60
Raiders 1.98 -1.10 3.10
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 200 matches played, 136 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cowboys vs. Eels Sep 23 20 – 24 2.80 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 24 32 – 12 0.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Eels Panthers 4.80

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.29 16.79 -0.50
Ulster 10.28 9.27 1.00
Munster 8.08 9.78 -1.70
Bulls 7.70 7.84 -0.10
Stormers 7.61 7.14 0.50
Sharks 6.33 6.95 -0.60
Edinburgh 4.99 3.58 1.40
Glasgow -0.10 -0.00 -0.10
Ospreys -0.87 -0.83 -0.00
Lions -1.86 -1.74 -0.10
Scarlets -2.06 -1.23 -0.80
Connacht -2.61 -1.60 -1.00
Benetton -3.30 -3.68 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -7.36 -7.42 0.10
Dragons -11.67 -11.81 0.10
Zebre -15.41 -16.99 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 15 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 37 – 42 -18.50 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 52 – 24 10.30 TRUE
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 42 – 10 23.20 TRUE
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 39 – 55 -6.90 TRUE
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 33 – 31 8.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 38 – 15 13.80 TRUE
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 27 – 28 6.30 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 23 – 17 -17.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulls vs. Connacht Oct 01 Bulls 14.80
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Lions Oct 01 Lions -1.00
3 Ulster vs. Leinster Oct 01 Leinster -2.00
4 Stormers vs. Edinburgh Oct 01 Stormers 7.10
5 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 02 Ospreys 3.70
6 Munster vs. Zebre Oct 02 Munster 28.00
7 Benetton vs. Scarlets Oct 02 Benetton 3.30
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Oct 02 Sharks -13.50

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.21 6.34 0.90
La Rochelle 7.17 6.88 0.30
Montpellier 5.24 4.18 1.10
Bordeaux Begles 4.80 5.27 -0.50
Clermont 4.22 4.05 0.20
Racing 92 3.97 4.86 -0.90
Toulon 3.11 4.09 -1.00
Lyon 2.54 3.10 -0.60
Castres Olympique 2.19 2.87 -0.70
Stade Francais -0.58 -1.05 0.50
Section Paloise -2.20 -2.12 -0.10
USA Perpignan -3.38 -2.75 -0.60
Aviron Bayonnais -3.49 -4.26 0.80
Brive -3.55 -4.20 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Sep 24 19 – 13 -0.70 FALSE
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 25 20 – 15 -2.50 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Sep 25 12 – 6 12.90 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sep 25 33 – 27 10.00 TRUE
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sep 25 43 – 17 13.10 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Sep 25 37 – 10 8.50 TRUE
7 Clermont vs. La Rochelle Sep 26 22 – 13 2.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Oct 01 Bordeaux Begles 11.90
2 Brive vs. Aviron Bayonnais Oct 02 Brive 6.40
3 Clermont vs. Lyon Oct 02 Clermont 8.20
4 Section Paloise vs. Toulon Oct 02 Section Paloise 1.20
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Oct 02 USA Perpignan 0.90
6 La Rochelle vs. Racing 92 Oct 02 La Rochelle 9.70
7 Montpellier vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 03 Montpellier 4.50

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.97 7.93 1.00
Gloucester 5.43 5.92 -0.50
Harlequins 4.18 3.92 0.30
Sale Sharks 4.14 4.14 0.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.41 3.67 -0.30
Northampton Saints 2.94 3.99 -1.00
Wasps 0.98 0.77 0.20
London Irish -1.67 -1.65 -0.00
Bristol -2.41 -2.43 0.00
Saracens -4.51 -5.00 0.50
Bath -9.36 -9.15 -0.20
Newcastle Falcons -10.32 -8.76 -1.60
Worcester Warriors -10.71 -12.27 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 24 31 – 39 -5.40 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Sep 25 40 – 36 3.70 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 21 – 41 0.60 FALSE
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Sep 25 41 – 39 -6.40 FALSE
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 25 39 – 5 1.00 TRUE
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Sep 26 43 – 42 4.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol Oct 01 Bristol -3.40
2 Gloucester vs. Worcester Warriors Oct 02 Gloucester 20.60
3 London Irish vs. Bath Oct 02 London Irish 12.20
4 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 02 Sale Sharks 5.20
5 Saracens vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 02 Leicester Tigers -9.00
6 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Oct 03 Harlequins 5.70

 

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 7.35 2.00 5.30
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.87 -0.70
North Harbour 4.79 2.31 2.50
Bay of Plenty 4.64 0.10 4.50
Waikato 4.27 2.00 2.30
Wellington 4.24 3.58 0.70
Tasman 4.05 5.94 -1.90
Auckland 3.44 4.50 -1.10
Otago -0.39 -1.63 1.20
Taranaki -0.69 3.63 -4.30
Counties Manukau -6.22 -6.32 0.10
Northland -6.89 -6.68 -0.20
Southland -9.49 -7.01 -2.50
Manawatu -11.90 -5.97 -5.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 23 38 – 20 5.10 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 24 20 – 14 1.00 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 24 52 – 17 11.30 TRUE
4 Wellington vs. Waikato Sep 24 34 – 6 0.00 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 25 35 – 54 -7.80 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Sep 25 35 – 19 6.90 TRUE
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 25 30 – 26 -2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Sep 28 Bay of Plenty 14.00

 

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September 22, 2022

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 6.67 2.00 4.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.62 5.87 -0.20
Waikato 5.49 2.00 3.50
North Harbour 4.26 2.31 1.90
Bay of Plenty 4.15 0.10 4.10
Auckland 4.12 4.50 -0.40
Wellington 3.03 3.58 -0.50
Tasman 2.97 5.94 -3.00
Taranaki -0.16 3.63 -3.80
Otago -1.00 -1.63 0.60
Counties Manukau -5.63 -6.32 0.70
Northland -5.81 -6.68 0.90
Southland -10.09 -7.01 -3.10
Manawatu -11.29 -5.97 -5.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 55 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Sep 21 25 – 14 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Auckland Sep 23 Canterbury 5.10
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 24 Bay of Plenty 1.00
3 Tasman vs. Northland Sep 24 Tasman 11.30
4 Wellington vs. Waikato Sep 24 Wellington 0.00
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Sep 25 Otago -7.80
6 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Sep 25 North Harbour 6.90
7 Southland vs. Counties Manukau Sep 25 Counties Manukau -2.00

 

September 20, 2022

NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 11.21 19.20 -8.00
Panthers 11.14 14.26 -3.10
Rabbitohs 10.51 15.81 -5.30
Roosters 7.64 2.23 5.40
Eels 6.93 2.54 4.40
Cowboys 6.78 -12.27 19.00
Sharks 4.50 -1.10 5.60
Raiders 1.98 -1.10 3.10
Dragons -2.73 -7.99 5.30
Sea Eagles -5.26 10.99 -16.30
Broncos -5.92 -8.90 3.00
Titans -6.32 1.05 -7.40
Bulldogs -8.29 -10.25 2.00
Knights -9.53 -6.54 -3.00
Warriors -11.12 -8.99 -2.10
Wests Tigers -13.52 -10.94 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 135 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Raiders Sep 16 40 – 4 4.40 TRUE
2 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Sep 17 12 – 38 -3.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Eels Sep 23 Cowboys 2.80
2 Panthers vs. Rabbitohs Sep 24 Panthers 0.60

 

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 15.83 16.79 -1.00
Ulster 9.81 9.27 0.50
Munster 8.98 9.78 -0.80
Bulls 8.35 7.84 0.50
Stormers 7.14 7.14 0.00
Sharks 6.95 6.95 -0.00
Edinburgh 4.34 3.58 0.80
Ospreys -0.47 -0.83 0.40
Glasgow -0.85 -0.00 -0.80
Scarlets -1.59 -1.23 -0.40
Connacht -2.14 -1.60 -0.50
Lions -2.26 -1.74 -0.50
Benetton -2.84 -3.68 0.80
Cardiff Rugby -6.62 -7.42 0.80
Dragons -12.57 -11.81 -0.80
Zebre -16.03 -16.99 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Glasgow Sep 17 33 – 11 0.80 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Munster Sep 17 20 – 13 -12.70 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Leinster Sep 17 29 – 33 -29.30 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Bulls Sep 18 15 – 31 -5.60 TRUE
5 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Sep 18 23 – 23 3.60 FALSE
6 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Sep 18 44 – 6 19.90 TRUE
7 Ulster vs. Connacht Sep 18 36 – 10 14.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Zebre vs. Sharks Sep 24 Sharks -18.50
2 Glasgow vs. Cardiff Rugby Sep 24 Glasgow 10.30
3 Leinster vs. Benetton Sep 24 Leinster 23.20
4 Scarlets vs. Ulster Sep 24 Ulster -6.90
5 Bulls vs. Edinburgh Sep 24 Bulls 8.50
6 Stormers vs. Connacht Sep 25 Stormers 13.80
7 Ospreys vs. Lions Sep 25 Ospreys 6.30
8 Dragons vs. Munster Sep 26 Munster -17.10

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
La Rochelle 7.47 6.88 0.60
Stade Toulousain 6.61 6.34 0.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.18 5.27 -0.10
Montpellier 4.80 4.18 0.60
Racing 92 4.57 4.86 -0.30
Clermont 3.92 4.05 -0.10
Toulon 3.44 4.09 -0.70
Lyon 2.74 3.10 -0.40
Castres Olympique 2.54 2.87 -0.30
Stade Francais -0.78 -1.05 0.30
Section Paloise -1.76 -2.12 0.40
USA Perpignan -3.71 -2.75 -1.00
Aviron Bayonnais -3.87 -4.26 0.40
Brive -3.89 -4.20 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique Sep 17 33 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Montpellier Sep 18 26 – 31 -1.90 TRUE
3 La Rochelle vs. USA Perpignan Sep 18 43 – 8 16.50 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Sep 18 32 – 19 7.80 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Aviron Bayonnais Sep 18 26 – 16 9.50 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 18 26 – 16 -2.70 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Clermont Sep 19 30 – 29 6.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Sep 24 Toulon -0.70
2 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Bordeaux Begles Sep 25 Bordeaux Begles -2.50
3 Castres Olympique vs. Brive Sep 25 Castres Olympique 12.90
4 Lyon vs. Stade Francais Sep 25 Lyon 10.00
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Sep 25 Montpellier 13.10
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Sep 25 Stade Toulousain 8.50
7 Clermont vs. La Rochelle Sep 26 Clermont 2.90

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 7.55 7.93 -0.40
Gloucester 5.92 5.92 0.00
Sale Sharks 4.61 4.14 0.50
Northampton Saints 4.35 3.99 0.40
Exeter Chiefs 3.95 3.67 0.30
Harlequins 3.06 3.92 -0.90
Wasps -0.37 0.77 -1.10
Bristol -1.30 -2.43 1.10
London Irish -2.01 -1.65 -0.40
Saracens -4.14 -5.00 0.90
Newcastle Falcons -8.38 -8.76 0.40
Bath -9.63 -9.15 -0.50
Worcester Warriors -12.56 -12.27 -0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 6 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. London Irish Sep 17 38 – 22 10.10 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Sep 18 20 – 37 -8.80 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Saracens Sep 18 27 – 30 13.40 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 18 36 – 21 21.20 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Bristol Sep 18 8 – 23 7.70 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Sep 19 21 – 36 -11.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Wasps Sep 24 Wasps -4.80
2 Bristol vs. London Irish Sep 25 Bristol 5.20
3 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Sep 25 Northampton Saints 1.30
4 Saracens vs. Gloucester Sep 25 Gloucester -5.60
5 Worcester Warriors vs. Newcastle Falcons Sep 25 Worcester Warriors 0.30
6 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Sep 26 Exeter Chiefs 5.40

 

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