December 5, 2018

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 12.69 11.19 1.50
Exeter Chiefs 11.39 11.13 0.30
Wasps 4.39 8.30 -3.90
Gloucester Rugby 3.83 1.23 2.60
Northampton Saints 2.42 3.42 -1.00
Leicester Tigers 2.41 6.26 -3.80
Harlequins 2.38 2.05 0.30
Bath Rugby 0.95 3.11 -2.20
Sale Sharks 0.10 -0.81 0.90
Worcester Warriors -2.39 -5.18 2.80
Newcastle Falcons -2.43 -3.51 1.10
Bristol -4.14 -5.60 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 30 28 – 26 -4.70 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 01 41 – 10 -3.60 FALSE
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Worcester Warriors Dec 01 36 – 16 10.80 TRUE
4 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Dec 01 14 – 16 11.60 FALSE
5 Saracens vs. Wasps Dec 01 29 – 6 12.80 TRUE
6 Bath Rugby vs. Sale Sharks Dec 02 7 – 7 7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Worcester Warriors vs. Northampton Saints Dec 21 Worcester Warriors 0.70
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Dec 22 Exeter Chiefs 4.20
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins Dec 22 Leicester Tigers 5.50
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Rugby Dec 22 Gloucester Rugby -0.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Dec 22 Sale Sharks 9.70
6 Wasps vs. Bath Rugby Dec 23 Wasps 8.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »