Posts filed under Sports statistics (1803)

September 22, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 12.80 12.03 0.80
Patriots 9.53 8.11 1.40
Bills 6.80 4.81 2.00
Rams 5.49 6.16 -0.70
Vikings 4.88 2.79 2.10
Jaguars 4.22 4.17 0.10
49ers 4.13 0.63 3.50
Broncos 3.34 4.07 -0.70
Texans 3.07 5.51 -2.40
Lions 2.94 5.20 -2.30
Ravens 2.65 2.53 0.10
Bengals 2.26 0.39 1.90
Bears 2.05 1.18 0.90
Chiefs 0.91 -1.34 2.30
Packers -0.56 1.72 -2.30
Eagles -0.64 0.73 -1.40
Steelers -0.87 -0.43 -0.40
Saints -1.06 -3.38 2.30
Colts -2.11 -0.74 -1.40
Chargers -2.12 1.16 -3.30
Cowboys -2.82 -3.42 0.60
Raiders -2.82 -5.72 2.90
Giants -2.94 -2.38 -0.60
Panthers -3.28 -4.66 1.40
Browns -3.54 -2.50 -1.00
Buccaneers -4.73 -3.95 -0.80
Falcons -5.10 -1.39 -3.70
Commanders -5.75 -4.65 -1.10
Cardinals -6.56 -7.49 0.90
Dolphins -6.74 -3.99 -2.80
Jets -7.71 -9.84 2.10
Titans -9.24 -8.81 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bills vs. Lions Sept 18 41 – 31 1.50 TRUE
2 Falcons vs. Panthers Sept 21 3 – 34 3.90 FALSE
3 Ravens vs. Saints Sept 21 17 – 24 6.20 FALSE
4 Bears vs. Vikings Sept 21 3 – 9 -1.60 TRUE
5 Texans vs. Bengals Sept 21 6 – 20 4.10 FALSE
6 Patriots vs. Steelers Sept 21 20 – 3 7.80 TRUE
7 Jets vs. Packers Sept 21 17 – 20 -8.80 TRUE
8 Buccaneers vs. Browns Sept 21 19 – 23 -0.10 TRUE
9 Titans vs. Eagles Sept 21 20 – 24 -10.40 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Sept 21 20 – 13 -3.90 FALSE
11 Chargers vs. Raiders Sept 21 14 – 26 3.60 FALSE
12 Cardinals vs. Seahawks Sept 21 7 – 31 -17.60 TRUE
13 Cowboys vs. Commanders Sept 21 37 – 20 -0.20 FALSE
14 49ers vs. Dolphins Sept 21 35 – 13 8.30 TRUE
15 Chiefs vs. Colts Sept 21 33 – 30 3.00 TRUE
16 Rams vs. Giants Sept 22 28 – 6 5.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Packers vs. Falcons Sept 25 Packers 4.50
2 Bills vs. Chargers Sept 28 Bills 8.90
3 Browns vs. Panthers Sept 28 Panthers -0.30
4 Lions vs. Jets Sept 28 Lions 10.70
5 Colts vs. Texans Sept 28 Texans -5.20
6 Jaguars vs. Patriots Sept 28 Patriots -5.30
7 Dolphins vs. Chiefs Sept 28 Chiefs -7.70
8 Giants vs. Titans Sept 28 Giants 6.30
9 Steelers vs. Bengals Sept 28 Bengals -3.10
10 Commanders vs. Seahawks Sept 28 Seahawks -18.60
11 49ers vs. Cardinals Sept 28 49ers 10.70
12 Buccaneers vs. Vikings Sept 28 Vikings -9.60
13 Cowboys vs. Ravens Sept 28 Ravens -5.50
14 Saints vs. Raiders Sept 28 Saints 1.80
15 Broncos vs. Rams Sept 28 Rams -2.10
16 Bears vs. Eagles Sept 29 Bears 2.70

 

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September 21, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.13 12.13 0.00
Bulls 10.00 10.00 -0.00
Stormers 6.49 6.49 0.00
Glasgow 6.47 6.47 -0.00
Connacht 2.62 2.62 0.00
Sharks 2.16 2.16 0.00
Lions 1.48 1.48 0.00
Munster 1.25 1.25 0.00
Ulster -0.32 -0.32 0.00
Cardiff Rugby -1.63 -1.63 -0.00
Edinburgh -2.55 -2.55 0.00
Ospreys -3.35 -3.35 0.00
Scarlets -3.47 -3.47 0.00
Benetton -6.67 -6.67 0.00
Dragons -10.04 -10.04 -0.00
Zebre -14.56 -14.56 -0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Dragons Sept 26 Benetton 8.90
2 Connacht vs. Stormers Sept 26 Connacht 1.60
3 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Sept 26 Ulster 7.70
4 Lions vs. Leinster Sept 26 Leinster -5.10
5 Sharks vs. Ospreys Sept 27 Sharks 11.00
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Sept 27 Munster 0.30
7 Zebre vs. Bulls Sept 27 Bulls -19.10
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sept 27 Scarlets 0.70

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.47 12.37 0.10
Montpellier 6.76 6.36 0.40
Bordeaux Begles 5.17 3.70 1.50
Section Paloise 4.84 4.18 0.70
Stade Rochelais 4.64 4.97 -0.30
Stade Francais 4.16 5.68 -1.50
Clermont 3.53 4.21 -0.70
Racing 92 2.01 3.59 -1.60
Lyon 0.83 -0.94 1.80
Toulon -0.42 -0.81 0.40
Castres Olympique -1.39 -0.29 -1.10
Bayonne -2.42 -2.02 -0.40
USA Perpignan -5.08 -5.39 0.30
Vannes -9.49 -10.00 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Sept 20 29 – 27 6.00 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Sept 20 46 – 24 -0.90 FALSE
3 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Sept 20 51 – 25 0.90 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Sept 20 50 – 13 17.00 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Sept 20 10 – 20 10.50 FALSE
6 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 20 23 – 29 -16.20 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sept 21 40 – 10 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 27 Bordeaux Begles -3.70
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Sept 27 Clermont 11.40
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Sept 27 Racing 92 10.90
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Sept 27 Stade Francais 9.80
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sept 27 Toulon 15.60
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 27 Section Paloise 6.70
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Sept 28 Stade Toulousain 12.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 9.92 9.92 -0.00
Bath 9.66 9.66 -0.00
Northampton Saints 8.34 8.34 -0.00
Saracens 8.04 8.04 -0.00
Exeter Chiefs 7.58 7.58 -0.00
Bristol -0.11 -0.11 0.00
Sale Sharks -2.31 -2.31 -0.00
Gloucester -3.46 -3.46 0.00
Harlequins -3.58 -3.58 0.00
Newcastle Red Bulls -25.37 -25.37 -0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Harlequins vs. Bath Sept 26 Bath -6.20
2 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Sept 26 Northampton Saints 40.70
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sept 27 Exeter Chiefs 18.00
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Sept 27 Sale Sharks 4.80
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Sept 28 Leicester Tigers 8.90

 

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NRL Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

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Team Ratings for the Preliminary Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.62 8.77 1.80
Warriors 7.94 -1.18 9.10
Dolphins 7.60 1.85 5.70
Roosters 6.45 9.50 -3.10
Storm 3.08 6.96 -3.90
Sharks 2.65 7.25 -4.60
Sea Eagles 2.09 0.21 1.90
Rabbitohs 2.06 -5.05 7.10
Knights 1.46 -14.06 15.50
Raiders 0.57 1.62 -1.00
Bulldogs -1.37 2.13 -3.50
Cowboys -3.94 -2.69 -1.30
Eels -4.11 -0.37 -3.70
Broncos -5.52 7.06 -12.60
Titans -7.06 -8.02 1.00
Dragons -10.59 -6.72 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.91 -7.26 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 210 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sharks Sept 19 46 – 10 3.60 TRUE
2 Warriors vs. Knights Sept 20 10 – 12 12.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Preliminary Finals

Here are the predictions for the Preliminary Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Roosters Sept 25 Dolphins 5.20
2 Panthers vs. Knights Sept 27 Panthers 13.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.44 10.29 -0.90
Otago 8.51 5.80 2.70
Hawke’s Bay 7.45 5.18 2.30
Taranaki 6.49 7.57 -1.10
Bay of Plenty 3.27 9.80 -6.50
Northland 3.09 -5.96 9.00
North Harbour 3.05 -4.18 7.20
Waikato -0.26 -0.83 0.60
Auckland -0.69 -2.64 1.90
Tasman -0.96 0.68 -1.60
Counties Manukau -3.57 3.63 -7.20
Wellington -8.14 2.70 -10.80
Manawatu -10.32 -15.05 4.70
Southland -11.19 -10.83 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Counties Manukau vs. Otago Sept 17 21 – 50 -6.10 TRUE
2 Tasman vs. Auckland Sept 18 22 – 24 4.20 FALSE
3 Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay Sept 19 32 – 17 -3.70 FALSE
4 Waikato vs. Manawatu Sept 19 36 – 27 14.30 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Northland Sept 19 28 – 52 -5.80 TRUE
6 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sept 20 24 – 25 -4.10 TRUE
7 Taranaki vs. Southland Sept 20 55 – 19 18.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 24 Bay of Plenty -1.20
2 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 25 Auckland 12.60
3 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 26 Northland 9.70
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Sept 26 Canterbury 23.60
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Sept 26 Otago -2.50
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Sept 27 Waikato -4.90
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sept 27 Hawke’s Bay 4.00

 

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AFL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 25.18 26.20 -1.00
Geelong Cats 24.17 26.75 -2.60
Sydney Swans 24.04 0.56 23.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.14 6.56 15.60
Hawthorn Hawks 18.94 22.83 -3.90
Adelaide Crows 12.34 15.32 -3.00
Melbourne Demons 9.05 1.64 7.40
Carlton Blues 6.99 -4.77 11.80
Western Bulldogs 4.93 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.06 11.76 -8.70
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 217 matches played, 153 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers Sept 18 71 – 83 17.40 FALSE
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 19 122 – 131 7.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Brisbane Lions Sept 26 Brisbane Lions -3.00

 

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September 15, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 11.90 12.03 -0.10
Patriots 8.24 8.11 0.10
Jaguars 5.75 4.17 1.60
Bills 5.61 4.81 0.80
Texans 4.72 5.51 -0.80
Vikings 4.26 2.79 1.50
Lions 4.14 5.20 -1.10
Rams 3.96 6.16 -2.20
Ravens 3.91 2.53 1.40
49ers 2.83 0.63 2.20
Bears 2.67 1.18 1.50
Broncos 1.81 4.07 -2.30
Chiefs 0.92 -1.34 2.30
Bengals 0.62 0.39 0.20
Steelers 0.42 -0.43 0.80
Eagles 0.26 0.73 -0.50
Packers 0.24 1.72 -1.50
Chargers -0.68 1.16 -1.80
Giants -1.41 -2.38 1.00
Colts -2.12 -0.74 -1.40
Falcons -2.23 -1.39 -0.80
Saints -2.32 -3.38 1.10
Browns -4.08 -2.50 -1.60
Commanders -4.18 -4.65 0.50
Buccaneers -4.19 -3.95 -0.20
Raiders -4.26 -5.72 1.50
Cowboys -4.40 -3.42 -1.00
Dolphins -5.45 -3.99 -1.50
Cardinals -5.66 -7.49 1.80
Panthers -6.15 -4.66 -1.50
Jets -8.52 -9.84 1.30
Titans -10.14 -8.81 -1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Seahawks vs. Patriots Sept 10 13 – 10 3.90 TRUE
2 Rams vs. 49ers Sept 11 7 – 27 5.50 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Bears Sept 14 37 – 59 -5.80 TRUE
4 Bengals vs. Buccaneers Sept 14 33 – 27 4.30 TRUE
5 Lions vs. Saints Sept 14 31 – 30 8.60 TRUE
6 Texans vs. Bills Sept 14 31 – 36 0.70 FALSE
7 Colts vs. Ravens Sept 14 23 – 41 -3.30 TRUE
8 Jaguars vs. Browns Sept 14 34 – 10 6.70 TRUE
9 Steelers vs. Falcons Sept 14 20 – 13 1.00 TRUE
10 Titans vs. Jets Sept 14 10 – 23 1.00 FALSE
11 Raiders vs. Dolphins Sept 14 27 – 13 -1.70 FALSE
12 Chargers vs. Cardinals Sept 14 14 – 26 8.70 FALSE
13 Vikings vs. Packers Sept 14 39 – 22 1.10 TRUE
14 Eagles vs. Commanders Sept 14 24 – 22 5.40 TRUE
15 Giants vs. Cowboys Sept 14 28 – 20 1.00 TRUE
16 Chiefs vs. Broncos Sept 15 31 – 10 -5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bills vs. Lions Sept 18 Bills 1.50
2 Falcons vs. Panthers Sept 21 Falcons 3.90
3 Ravens vs. Saints Sept 21 Ravens 6.20
4 Bears vs. Vikings Sept 21 Vikings -1.60
5 Texans vs. Bengals Sept 21 Texans 4.10
6 Patriots vs. Steelers Sept 21 Patriots 7.80
7 Jets vs. Packers Sept 21 Packers -8.80
8 Buccaneers vs. Browns Sept 21 Browns -0.10
9 Titans vs. Eagles Sept 21 Eagles -10.40
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Sept 21 Jaguars -3.90
11 Chargers vs. Raiders Sept 21 Chargers 3.60
12 Cardinals vs. Seahawks Sept 21 Seahawks -17.60
13 Cowboys vs. Commanders Sept 21 Commanders -0.20
14 49ers vs. Dolphins Sept 21 49ers 8.30
15 Chiefs vs. Colts Sept 21 Chiefs 3.00
16 Rams vs. Giants Sept 22 Rams 5.40

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.86 12.37 0.50
Montpellier 6.10 6.36 -0.30
Section Paloise 5.63 4.18 1.40
Stade Rochelais 5.31 4.97 0.30
Stade Francais 4.92 5.68 -0.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.40 3.70 0.70
Clermont 4.27 4.21 0.10
Racing 92 1.34 3.59 -2.20
Lyon 0.04 -0.94 1.00
Toulon -0.66 -0.81 0.20
Castres Olympique -1.15 -0.29 -0.90
Bayonne -3.15 -2.02 -1.10
USA Perpignan -4.42 -5.39 1.00
Vannes -9.88 -10.00 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 10 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Sept 13 25 – 16 5.40 TRUE
2 Racing 92 vs. Lyon Sept 13 31 – 48 9.40 FALSE
3 Section Paloise vs. Bayonne Sept 13 70 – 28 13.50 TRUE
4 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique Sept 13 43 – 29 2.40 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Montpellier Sept 13 12 – 26 -8.90 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 13 20 – 21 0.70 FALSE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 14 48 – 12 13.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Sept 20 Castres Olympique 6.00
2 Bayonne vs. Clermont Sept 20 Clermont -0.90
3 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Sept 20 Lyon 0.90
4 Montpellier vs. USA Perpignan Sept 20 Montpellier 17.00
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Sept 20 Stade Rochelais 10.50
6 Vannes vs. Stade Toulousain Sept 20 Stade Toulousain -16.20
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Sept 21 Bordeaux Begles 6.00

 

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NRL Predictions for Finals Week 2

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.62 8.77 1.80
Warriors 9.01 -1.18 10.20
Dolphins 7.60 1.85 5.70
Sharks 4.76 7.25 -2.50
Roosters 4.33 9.50 -5.20
Storm 3.08 6.96 -3.90
Sea Eagles 2.09 0.21 1.90
Rabbitohs 2.06 -5.05 7.10
Raiders 0.57 1.62 -1.00
Knights 0.38 -14.06 14.40
Bulldogs -1.37 2.13 -3.50
Cowboys -3.94 -2.69 -1.30
Eels -4.11 -0.37 -3.70
Broncos -5.52 7.06 -12.60
Titans -7.06 -8.02 1.00
Dragons -10.59 -6.72 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.91 -7.26 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 208 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Knights Sept 11 10 – 20 8.30 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Dolphins Sept 12 16 – 26 8.00 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Cowboys Sept 12 26 – 16 13.50 TRUE
4 Panthers vs. Roosters Sept 13 19 – 12 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 2

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Knights Sept 18 Warriors 12.60
2 Roosters vs. Sharks Sept 19 Roosters 3.60

 

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