Posts filed under Sports statistics (1750)

June 23, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.08 8.77 5.30
Dolphins 8.93 1.85 7.10
Warriors 6.65 -1.18 7.80
Roosters 6.34 9.50 -3.20
Sharks 5.42 7.25 -1.80
Sea Eagles 4.84 0.21 4.60
Storm 2.60 6.96 -4.40
Rabbitohs 1.51 -5.05 6.60
Cowboys -2.65 -2.69 0.00
Bulldogs -4.08 2.13 -6.20
Raiders -4.16 1.62 -5.80
Broncos -4.24 7.06 -11.30
Knights -4.82 -14.06 9.20
Titans -5.01 -8.02 3.00
Eels -6.10 -0.37 -5.70
Wests Tigers -7.41 -7.26 -0.20
Dragons -11.93 -6.72 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 19 22 – 20 12.80 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Jun 20 22 – 36 -11.90 TRUE
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 20 19 – 18 -17.70 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 13 – 12 -6.60 FALSE
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 21 38 – 20 12.00 TRUE
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 21 42 – 20 8.80 TRUE
7 Roosters vs. Sharks Jun 21 27 – 8 2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Eels vs. Rabbitohs Jun 25 Rabbitohs -3.60
2 Titans vs. Bulldogs Jun 26 Titans 3.10
3 Broncos vs. Roosters Jun 26 Roosters -6.60
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Jun 27 Dolphins 6.30
5 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 27 Panthers -12.70
6 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Jun 27 Sea Eagles 6.20
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Jun 28 Raiders 11.80
8 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jun 28 Knights 6.60

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.95 26.75 1.20
Fremantle Dockers 24.60 6.56 18.00
Sydney Swans 19.39 0.56 18.80
Hawthorn Hawks 18.85 22.83 -4.00
Adelaide Crows 16.65 15.32 1.30
Brisbane Lions 11.90 26.20 -14.30
Western Bulldogs 7.28 26.06 -18.80
Collingwood 5.25 11.76 -6.50
Gold Coast Suns 4.17 10.24 -6.10
Melbourne Demons 3.66 1.64 2.00
GWS Giants 3.07 9.54 -6.50
Carlton Blues 0.77 -4.77 5.50
St Kilda Saints -1.27 -7.63 6.40
Port Adelaide Power -9.60 -14.65 5.00
North Melbourne -18.08 -21.71 3.60
Essendon Bombers -29.94 -27.89 -2.00
West Coast Eagles -33.15 -39.36 6.20
Richmond Tigers -39.48 -29.44 -10.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 18 99 – 90 7.40 TRUE
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 19 97 – 113 -1.40 TRUE
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 20 79 – 62 25.50 TRUE
4 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jun 20 65 – 88 19.70 FALSE
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 20 78 – 51 25.60 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 48 – 73 -20.60 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 21 61 – 83 -6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans Jun 25 Brisbane Lions 3.50
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. GWS Giants Jun 26 Hawthorn Hawks 26.80
3 Carlton Blues vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 27 Carlton Blues 44.90
4 Collingwood vs. Richmond Tigers Jun 27 Collingwood 44.70
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 27 Adelaide Crows -26.30
6 North Melbourne vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 28 North Melbourne 11.90
7 Fremantle Dockers vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 28 Fremantle Dockers 31.40

 

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June 16, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.50 11.56 0.90
Stade Francais 6.18 -2.17 8.40
Montpellier 6.13 -0.21 6.30
Stade Rochelais 4.87 1.22 3.70
Racing 92 4.78 1.88 2.90
Bordeaux Begles 4.05 4.78 -0.70
Section Paloise 3.90 2.21 1.70
Clermont 3.53 1.88 1.60
Lyon -0.72 -0.45 -0.30
Toulon -0.73 3.49 -4.20
Castres Olympique -0.74 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.91 1.48 -3.40
USA Perpignan -5.85 -3.37 -2.50
Montauban -23.12 -10.00 -13.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 184 matches played, 142 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Jun 14 31 – 33 6.70 FALSE
2 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 15 45 – 5 5.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Jun 20 Stade Toulousain 14.20
2 Montpellier vs. Stade Francais Jun 21 Montpellier 6.50

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

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Team Ratings for the Super Rugby Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 14.76 8.29 6.50
Chiefs 14.40 12.36 2.00
Crusaders 9.09 8.41 0.70
Blues 5.40 8.91 -3.50
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 82 matches played, 60 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 49 – 12 8.30 TRUE
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 57 – 21 12.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Super Rugby Final

Here are the predictions for the Super Rugby Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 20 Hurricanes 5.40

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 9.96 5.55 4.40
Bath 9.82 10.30 -0.50
Saracens 8.02 5.03 3.00
Northampton Saints 7.90 -1.47 9.40
Exeter Chiefs 7.39 -4.58 12.00
Bristol -0.13 3.66 -3.80
Sale Sharks -2.09 6.70 -8.80
Gloucester -3.20 4.13 -7.30
Harlequins -3.75 -3.02 -0.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -26.06 -18.45 -7.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 92 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 13 45 – 31 3.20 TRUE
2 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 14 26 – 27 11.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 21 Northampton Saints 7.50

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 16

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Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 15.41 8.77 6.60
Dolphins 8.70 1.85 6.80
Sharks 6.61 7.25 -0.60
Warriors 5.99 -1.18 7.20
Sea Eagles 5.68 0.21 5.50
Roosters 5.15 9.50 -4.40
Storm 1.61 6.96 -5.30
Rabbitohs 1.51 -5.05 6.60
Cowboys -1.98 -2.69 0.70
Raiders -3.17 1.62 -4.80
Knights -4.00 -14.06 10.10
Broncos -4.24 7.06 -11.30
Bulldogs -4.91 2.13 -7.00
Eels -6.10 -0.37 -5.70
Titans -6.34 -8.02 1.70
Wests Tigers -7.18 -7.26 0.10
Dragons -12.76 -6.72 -6.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 113 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Rabbitohs vs. Broncos Jun 11 48 – 6 5.00 TRUE
2 Dolphins vs. Roosters Jun 12 48 – 10 3.00 TRUE
3 Warriors vs. Sharks Jun 13 8 – 10 4.90 FALSE
4 Eels vs. Raiders Jun 13 15 – 12 0.50 TRUE
5 Wests Tigers vs. Titans Jun 14 36 – 28 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Knights vs. Dragons Jun 19 Knights 12.80
2 Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins Jun 20 Dolphins -11.90
3 Titans vs. Panthers Jun 20 Panthers -17.70
4 Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles Jun 20 Sea Eagles -6.60
5 Warriors vs. Cowboys Jun 21 Warriors 12.00
6 Storm vs. Raiders Jun 21 Storm 8.80
7 Roosters vs. Sharks Jun 21 Roosters 2.50

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 28.10 26.75 1.40
Fremantle Dockers 24.45 6.56 17.90
Sydney Swans 19.39 0.56 18.80
Hawthorn Hawks 17.69 22.83 -5.10
Adelaide Crows 17.42 15.32 2.10
Brisbane Lions 11.90 26.20 -14.30
GWS Giants 6.25 9.54 -3.30
Western Bulldogs 6.03 26.06 -20.00
Gold Coast Suns 5.32 10.24 -4.90
Collingwood 5.12 11.76 -6.60
Melbourne Demons 2.89 1.64 1.30
St Kilda Saints -0.02 -7.63 7.60
Carlton Blues -2.41 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -9.48 -14.65 5.20
North Melbourne -18.48 -21.71 3.20
Essendon Bombers -29.94 -27.89 -2.00
West Coast Eagles -33.15 -39.36 6.20
Richmond Tigers -39.09 -29.44 -9.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows Jun 11 64 – 121 9.30 FALSE
2 Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns Jun 12 105 – 60 31.30 TRUE
3 Melbourne Demons vs. Essendon Bombers Jun 13 95 – 50 30.60 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles Jun 13 74 – 73 4.30 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans Jun 13 90 – 93 -20.60 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 14 80 – 115 -53.90 TRUE
7 St Kilda Saints vs. GWS Giants Jun 14 96 – 88 4.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Geelong Cats Jun 18 Fremantle Dockers 7.40
2 Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks Jun 19 Hawthorn Hawks -1.40
3 Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 20 Adelaide Crows 25.50
4 GWS Giants vs. Carlton Blues Jun 20 GWS Giants 19.70
5 Collingwood vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 20 Collingwood 25.60
6 Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne Jun 21 North Melbourne -20.60
7 St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 21 Western Bulldogs -6.00

 

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June 9, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Final

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Team Ratings for the Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.59 13.41 -1.80
Bulls 11.21 8.86 2.30
Stormers 7.05 4.17 2.90
Glasgow 6.24 6.18 0.10
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 150 matches played, 102 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 21 – 22 2.90 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 20 – 11 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Final

Here are the predictions for the Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leinster vs. Bulls Jun 20 Leinster 7.40

 

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Top 14 Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.50 11.56 0.90
Montpellier 6.13 -0.21 6.30
Stade Rochelais 5.89 1.22 4.70
Stade Francais 5.16 -2.17 7.30
Section Paloise 4.42 2.21 2.20
Racing 92 4.27 1.88 2.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.05 4.78 -0.70
Clermont 3.53 1.88 1.60
Lyon -0.72 -0.45 -0.30
Toulon -0.73 3.49 -4.20
Castres Olympique -0.74 0.59 -1.30
Bayonne -1.91 1.48 -3.40
USA Perpignan -5.85 -3.37 -2.50
Montauban -23.12 -10.00 -13.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 182 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 52 – 7 8.30 TRUE
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 31 – 34 7.80 FALSE
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 38 – 21 5.70 TRUE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 25 – 28 0.00 FALSE
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 31 – 20 -2.70 FALSE
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 71 – 35 33.80 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 27 – 22 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Jun 14 Section Paloise 6.70
2 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Jun 15 Stade Francais 5.80

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Semi-finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.88 8.29 5.60
Chiefs 13.38 12.36 1.00
Crusaders 10.11 8.41 1.70
Blues 6.27 8.91 -2.60
Brumbies 1.90 5.59 -3.70
Reds 0.41 1.74 -1.30
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 58 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 66 – 12 12.70 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 52 – 31 7.70 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 46 – 24 15.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Chiefs vs. Crusaders Jun 12 Chiefs 8.30
2 Hurricanes vs. Blues Jun 13 Hurricanes 12.60

 

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