Posts filed under Sports statistics (455)

October 25, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.35 14.78 0.60
Wellington 12.26 -1.62 13.90
Taranaki 6.90 7.04 -0.10
North Harbour 6.48 -1.27 7.80
Tasman 3.60 9.54 -5.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 0.25 -0.34 0.60
Bay of Plenty -0.14 -3.98 3.80
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -4.04 -12.37 8.30
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 74 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 49 – 21 18.60 TRUE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 48 – 32 0.90 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 35 – 24 13.30 TRUE
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 29 – 30 9.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 27 Wellington 16.40
2 Canterbury vs. Tasman Oct 28 Canterbury 15.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.33 4.33 -0.00
Sharks 4.06 2.15 1.90
Western Province 4.02 3.30 0.70
Lions 3.45 7.41 -4.00
Blue Bulls 0.48 2.32 -1.80
Pumas -8.75 -10.63 1.90
Griquas -10.19 -11.62 1.40
Cheetahs2 -30.14 -30.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 44 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Oct 21 37 – 27 7.70 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 21 19 – 5 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 28 Sharks 4.50

 

October 17, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Team Ratings for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 15.56 14.78 0.80
Wellington 11.41 -1.62 13.00
Taranaki 7.81 7.04 0.80
North Harbour 6.27 -1.27 7.50
Tasman 2.69 9.54 -6.90
Counties Manukau 2.02 5.70 -3.70
Otago 1.61 -0.34 2.00
Auckland -0.33 6.11 -6.40
Bay of Plenty -1.50 -3.98 2.50
Waikato -3.17 -0.26 -2.90
Northland -3.19 -12.37 9.20
Manawatu -4.54 -3.59 -1.00
Hawke’s Bay -13.26 -5.85 -7.40
Southland -23.99 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 48 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 11 46 – 25 17.90 TRUE
2 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 12 36 – 18 18.70 TRUE
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 13 27 – 32 -13.40 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 14 36 – 32 6.00 TRUE
5 Otago vs. Southland Oct 14 43 – 19 30.80 TRUE
6 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Oct 14 52 – 30 -0.80 FALSE
7 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 15 64 – 33 -3.50 FALSE
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 15 36 – 31 -7.10 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Mitre 10 Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 20 Wellington 18.60
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Oct 21 Bay of Plenty 0.90
3 Canterbury vs. North Harbour Oct 21 Canterbury 13.30
4 Taranaki vs. Tasman Oct 21 Taranaki 9.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for the Currie Cup Finals

Team Ratings for the Currie Cup Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Note that Cheetahs2 is the Cheetahs team in weeks when the first team is playing in the Pro14.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 4.33 4.33 -0.00
Sharks 3.87 2.15 1.70
Lions 3.84 7.41 -3.60
Western Province 3.62 3.30 0.30
Blue Bulls 0.67 2.32 -1.70
Pumas -8.75 -10.63 1.90
Griquas -10.19 -11.62 1.40
Cheetahs2 -30.14 -30.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 42 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Oct 13 52 – 32 12.80 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 14 44 – 17 2.50 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 14 20 – 31 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Currie Cup Final

Here are the predictions for the Currie Cup Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Oct 21 Sharks 7.70
2 Western Province vs. Lions Oct 21 Western Province 4.30

 

October 10, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 9

Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 16.32 14.78 1.50
Wellington 11.48 -1.62 13.10
Taranaki 10.66 7.04 3.60
Tasman 4.74 9.54 -4.80
North Harbour 3.14 -1.27 4.40
Otago 2.22 -0.34 2.60
Counties Manukau -0.03 5.70 -5.70
Auckland -1.08 6.11 -7.20
Bay of Plenty -1.32 -3.98 2.70
Manawatu -3.19 -3.59 0.40
Northland -3.26 -12.37 9.10
Waikato -3.35 -0.26 -3.10
Hawke’s Bay -14.33 -5.85 -8.50
Southland -24.60 -16.50 -8.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 43 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Oct 04 21 – 14 4.80 TRUE
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 24 – 29 2.10 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 43 – 55 14.40 FALSE
4 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 28 – 36 11.00 FALSE
5 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 07 34 – 7 12.40 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Wellington Oct 07 12 – 61 -28.40 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 08 31 – 18 8.90 TRUE
8 Waikato vs. North Harbour Oct 08 11 – 13 -2.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Taranaki vs. Manawatu Oct 11 Taranaki 17.90
2 Wellington vs. Northland Oct 12 Wellington 18.70
3 Auckland vs. Canterbury Oct 13 Canterbury -13.40
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Oct 14 Bay of Plenty 6.00
5 Otago vs. Southland Oct 14 Otago 30.80
6 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Oct 14 Tasman -0.80
7 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 15 Taranaki -3.50
8 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Oct 15 Manawatu -7.10

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 14

Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

After trying to deal with the Cheetahs playing their first team in the Pro14 and a second or third team in the Currie Cup, I have come up with the appropriate solution, which is to have two separate Cheetahs teams. Cheetahs is the team when there is no Pro14 game, so the first choice players should be playing. Cheetahs2 is the team when there is a Pro14 game that week, so the reserve players will be playing in the Currie Cup.

I arbitrarily started the Cheetahs2 at a rating of -30, which is a bit of a rough guess based on results so far, and reran all my predictions so far to produce this weeks predictions. Note that the Cheetahs2 rating has not changed very much over the games so far, nor has the rating for the Cheetahs.

I would welcome comments on the assumptions underlying this approach.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Cheetahs 5.08 4.33 0.70
Sharks 4.45 2.15 2.30
Western Province 3.47 3.30 0.20
Lions 2.66 7.41 -4.70
Blue Bulls 0.09 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -8.17 -10.63 2.50
Griquas -10.19 -11.62 1.40
Cheetahs2 -30.14 -30.00 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cheetahs2 vs. Blue Bulls Oct 06 36 – 64 -25.30 TRUE
2 Pumas vs. Griquas Oct 07 35 – 38 7.30 FALSE
3 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 08 29 – 20 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Blue Bulls vs. Pumas Oct 13 Blue Bulls 12.80
2 Lions vs. Cheetahs Oct 14 Lions 2.50
3 Sharks vs. Western Province Oct 14 Sharks 5.90

 

October 3, 2017

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 8

Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 18.69 14.78 3.90
Wellington 9.62 -1.62 11.20
Taranaki 8.28 7.04 1.20
Tasman 4.19 9.54 -5.40
Otago 3.93 -0.34 4.30
North Harbour 3.39 -1.27 4.70
Counties Manukau -0.67 5.70 -6.40
Auckland -0.73 6.11 -6.80
Manawatu -2.55 -3.59 1.00
Bay of Plenty -3.03 -3.98 1.00
Waikato -3.41 -0.26 -3.10
Northland -4.57 -12.37 7.80
Hawke’s Bay -13.02 -5.85 -7.20
Southland -22.74 -16.50 -6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 32 – 30 -4.90 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 40 – 26 6.80 TRUE
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 33 – 30 24.20 TRUE
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 20 – 25 -18.60 TRUE
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 38 – 19 3.50 TRUE
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 37 – 17 27.40 TRUE
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 27 – 24 10.50 TRUE
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 25 – 16 8.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. North Harbour Oct 04 Tasman 4.80
2 Manawatu vs. Counties Manukau Oct 05 Manawatu 2.10
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Oct 06 Canterbury 14.40
4 Otago vs. Bay of Plenty Oct 07 Otago 11.00
5 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 07 Northland 12.40
6 Southland vs. Wellington Oct 07 Wellington -28.40
7 Tasman vs. Auckland Oct 08 Tasman 8.90
8 Waikato vs. North Harbour Oct 08 North Harbour -2.80

 

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.89 2.15 3.70
Western Province 3.98 3.30 0.70
Lions 2.44 7.41 -5.00
Cheetahs 1.59 4.33 -2.70
Blue Bulls 0.01 2.32 -2.30
Pumas -6.51 -10.63 4.10
Griquas -10.15 -11.62 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 36 matches played, 24 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 29 24 – 10 6.80 TRUE
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sep 30 59 – 24 -9.50 FALSE
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 01 45 – 46 0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. They have another such game this weekend causing problems with prediction. After 4 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 27 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 25 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being 6.1 below, it might be -19 and a win to the Blue Bulls.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Blue Bulls Oct 06 Cheetahs 6.10
2 Griquas vs. Pumas Oct 07 Griquas 0.90
3 Lions vs. Western Province Oct 08 Lions 3.00

 

September 26, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sharks 5.31 2.15 3.20
Western Province 3.84 3.30 0.50
Lions 3.02 7.41 -4.40
Cheetahs 2.73 4.33 -1.60
Blue Bulls 0.16 2.32 -2.20
Pumas -6.51 -10.63 4.10
Griquas -11.29 -11.62 0.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 33 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Blue Bulls Sep 23 18 – 5 9.00 TRUE
2 Western Province vs. Griquas Sep 23 55 – 27 18.90 TRUE
3 Cheetahs vs. Pumas Sep 23 33 – 32 14.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

The Cheetahs have been playing in the Pro 14 competition and fielding a second or third team in the Currie Cup. With little experience so far it is difficult to estimate the difference in expected points this might make. After 3 such games a quick estimate is that they might score 23 points less than if they were fielding their best team, but losses so far will have dropped their rating a couple of points already. I would guess that a difference of 21 points might be appropriate, so instead of the points difference being -9.50 below, it might be 11.5 and a win to Griquas.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Lions Sep 29 Sharks 6.80
2 Griquas vs. Cheetahs Sep 30 Cheetahs -9.50
3 Blue Bulls vs. Western Province Oct 01 Blue Bulls 0.80

 

Mitre 10 Cup Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 19.36 14.78 4.60
Wellington 10.36 -1.62 12.00
Taranaki 7.63 7.04 0.60
North Harbour 5.30 -1.27 6.60
Tasman 4.84 9.54 -4.70
Otago 3.81 -0.34 4.20
Counties Manukau -0.79 5.70 -6.50
Manawatu -1.32 -3.59 2.30
Bay of Plenty -1.63 -3.98 2.30
Auckland -2.13 6.11 -8.20
Waikato -4.08 -0.26 -3.80
Northland -5.07 -12.37 7.30
Hawke’s Bay -14.93 -5.85 -9.10
Southland -23.97 -16.50 -7.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 31 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bay of Plenty vs. Southland Sep 20 57 – 0 20.00 TRUE
2 Otago vs. Auckland Sep 21 34 – 26 10.40 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Northland Sep 22 39 – 25 6.40 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Sep 23 28 – 41 -9.40 TRUE
5 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 23 10 – 34 -7.50 TRUE
6 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sep 23 17 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. Counties Manukau Sep 24 31 – 31 0.50 FALSE
8 Tasman vs. Southland Sep 24 50 – 17 29.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Otago Sep 27 Otago -4.90
2 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 28 Taranaki 6.80
3 North Harbour vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 29 North Harbour 24.20
4 Southland vs. Manawatu Sep 30 Manawatu -18.60
5 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 30 Auckland 3.50
6 Canterbury vs. Waikato Sep 30 Canterbury 27.40
7 Wellington vs. Otago Oct 01 Wellington 10.50
8 Counties Manukau vs. Northland Oct 01 Counties Manukau 8.30