March 12, 2019

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17

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Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 10.74 11.19 -0.50
Exeter Chiefs 9.88 11.13 -1.30
Gloucester Rugby 4.00 1.23 2.80
Northampton Saints 3.51 3.42 0.10
Bath Rugby 2.99 3.11 -0.10
Wasps 2.90 8.30 -5.40
Harlequins 2.36 2.05 0.30
Sale Sharks 1.89 -0.81 2.70
Leicester Tigers 1.51 6.26 -4.70
Bristol -2.53 -5.60 3.10
Worcester Warriors -2.54 -5.18 2.60
Newcastle Falcons -3.13 -3.51 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 96 matches played, 66 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath Rugby vs. Saracens Mar 09 18 – 9 -3.40 FALSE
2 Harlequins vs. Gloucester Rugby Mar 09 7 – 29 6.10 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Mar 09 24 – 26 12.90 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Leicester Tigers Mar 09 32 – 5 4.00 TRUE
5 Wasps vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 09 19 – 20 12.80 FALSE
6 Worcester Warriors vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 09 30 – 33 -7.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Worcester Warriors Mar 23 Bristol 5.50
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Bath Rugby Mar 23 Exeter Chiefs 12.40
3 Gloucester Rugby vs. Wasps Mar 23 Gloucester Rugby 6.60
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 3.50
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Sale Sharks Mar 23 Newcastle Falcons 0.50
6 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 23 Saracens 13.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »