Posts from August 2023 (15)

August 10, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -1.79 -2.98 1.20
Northland -6.55 -3.92 -2.60
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 13 – 28 0.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 11 Hawke’s Bay -9.80
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato Aug 12 Bay of Plenty 3.60
3 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 12 Wellington -5.50
4 Tasman vs. Auckland Aug 12 Tasman 3.00
5 North Harbour vs. Canterbury Aug 13 Canterbury -0.40
6 Southland vs. Northland Aug 13 Northland -2.20
7 Manawatu vs. Taranaki Aug 13 Taranaki -9.00

 

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August 7, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.50 12.99 0.50
Storm 6.81 11.21 -4.40
Broncos 4.17 -5.92 10.10
Cowboys 4.05 6.23 -2.20
Rabbitohs 3.20 9.35 -6.20
Warriors 2.15 -11.12 13.30
Eels 1.89 6.78 -4.90
Sharks 1.85 4.50 -2.70
Knights -0.68 -9.53 8.80
Roosters -1.72 7.64 -9.40
Raiders -2.18 1.98 -4.20
Sea Eagles -3.60 -5.26 1.70
Titans -5.10 -6.32 1.20
Dragons -6.57 -2.73 -3.80
Dolphins -6.90 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -10.86 -13.52 2.70
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 26 – 16 4.00 TRUE
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 18 – 28 0.20 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 26 – 6 8.10 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 14 – 30 5.40 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 28 – 30 -3.60 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 16 – 26 6.40 FALSE
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 26 – 20 12.40 TRUE
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 22 – 18 13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Panthers Aug 10 Panthers -14.10
2 Sharks vs. Titans Aug 11 Sharks 9.90
3 Broncos vs. Eels Aug 11 Broncos 5.30
4 Rabbitohs vs. Dragons Aug 12 Rabbitohs 12.80
5 Wests Tigers vs. Warriors Aug 12 Warriors -7.00
6 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 12 Roosters 8.20
7 Storm vs. Raiders Aug 13 Storm 12.00
8 Knights vs. Bulldogs Aug 13 Knights 14.30

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 10.94 9.44 1.50
Wellington 8.29 8.72 -0.40
North Harbour 7.57 7.75 -0.20
Hawke’s Bay 5.30 5.12 0.20
Bay of Plenty 3.74 4.55 -0.80
Waikato 3.16 3.71 -0.60
Tasman 3.02 2.20 0.80
Auckland 2.97 2.15 0.80
Otago -0.19 0.62 -0.80
Taranaki -2.92 -2.98 0.10
Northland -5.42 -3.92 -1.50
Counties Manukau -7.50 -7.44 -0.10
Southland -11.72 -12.27 0.60
Manawatu -13.75 -14.18 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 7 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 27 – 15 4.60 TRUE
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 37 – 29 7.50 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 23 – 21 0.40 TRUE
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 6 – 22 -19.90 TRUE
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 11 – 43 -10.40 TRUE
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 30 – 32 5.40 FALSE
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 21 – 29 -13.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 0.50

 

August 1, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 23

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Team Ratings for Round 23

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.70 12.99 -0.30
Storm 7.61 11.21 -3.60
Cowboys 5.33 6.23 -0.90
Rabbitohs 4.23 9.35 -5.10
Broncos 2.90 -5.92 8.80
Eels 2.38 6.78 -4.40
Warriors 1.45 -11.12 12.60
Sharks 0.81 4.50 -3.70
Knights -0.50 -9.53 9.00
Raiders -1.54 1.98 -3.50
Roosters -2.18 7.64 -9.80
Sea Eagles -3.14 -5.26 2.10
Titans -4.40 -6.32 1.90
Dragons -7.06 -2.73 -4.30
Dolphins -7.08 -10.00 2.90
Wests Tigers -11.50 -13.52 2.00
Bulldogs -11.99 -8.29 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 164 matches played, 99 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Roosters Jul 27 32 – 10 6.10 TRUE
2 Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs Jul 28 18 – 32 -16.20 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 28 46 – 16 5.40 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Knights Jul 29 6 – 28 5.00 FALSE
5 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 29 18 – 24 0.00 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Sharks Jul 29 28 – 0 13.00 TRUE
7 Bulldogs vs. Dolphins Jul 30 23 – 22 -6.00 FALSE
8 Titans vs. Cowboys Jul 30 22 – 13 -8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 23

Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Sea Eagles Aug 03 Roosters 4.00
2 Titans vs. Warriors Aug 04 Titans 0.20
3 Panthers vs. Storm Aug 04 Panthers 8.10
4 Cowboys vs. Broncos Aug 05 Cowboys 5.40
5 Dolphins vs. Knights Aug 05 Knights -3.60
6 Rabbitohs vs. Sharks Aug 05 Rabbitohs 6.40
7 Eels vs. Dragons Aug 06 Eels 12.40
8 Raiders vs. Wests Tigers Aug 06 Raiders 13.00

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.44 9.44 0.00
Wellington 8.72 8.72 0.00
North Harbour 7.75 7.75 -0.00
Hawke’s Bay 5.12 5.12 0.00
Bay of Plenty 4.55 4.55 -0.00
Waikato 3.71 3.71 -0.00
Tasman 2.20 2.20 -0.00
Auckland 2.15 2.15 -0.00
Otago 0.62 0.62 -0.00
Taranaki -2.98 -2.98 -0.00
Northland -3.92 -3.92 0.00
Counties Manukau -7.44 -7.44 0.00
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.18 -14.18 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Tasman vs. Otago Aug 04 Tasman 4.60
2 Taranaki vs. Counties Manukau Aug 04 Taranaki 7.50
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour Aug 05 Hawke’s Bay 0.40
4 Manawatu vs. Wellington Aug 05 Wellington -19.90
5 Northland vs. Canterbury Aug 05 Canterbury -10.40
6 Bay of Plenty vs. Auckland Aug 06 Bay of Plenty 5.40
7 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 06 Waikato -13.00
8 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 09 Northland 2.10

 

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