Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 10.94 | 9.44 | 1.50 |
| Wellington | 8.29 | 8.72 | -0.40 |
| North Harbour | 7.57 | 7.75 | -0.20 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 5.30 | 5.12 | 0.20 |
| Bay of Plenty | 3.74 | 4.55 | -0.80 |
| Waikato | 3.16 | 3.71 | -0.60 |
| Tasman | 3.02 | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| Auckland | 2.97 | 2.15 | 0.80 |
| Otago | -0.19 | 0.62 | -0.80 |
| Taranaki | -1.79 | -2.98 | 1.20 |
| Northland | -6.55 | -3.92 | -2.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -7.50 | -7.44 | -0.10 |
| Southland | -11.72 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
| Manawatu | -13.75 | -14.18 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Taranaki | Aug 09 | 13 – 28 | 0.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 11 | Hawke’s Bay | -9.80 |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Aug 12 | Bay of Plenty | 3.60 |
| 3 | Otago vs. Wellington | Aug 12 | Wellington | -5.50 |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Auckland | Aug 12 | Tasman | 3.00 |
| 5 | North Harbour vs. Canterbury | Aug 13 | Canterbury | -0.40 |
| 6 | Southland vs. Northland | Aug 13 | Northland | -2.20 |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Taranaki | Aug 13 | Taranaki | -9.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hey David
Are you missing the Wednesday match? Hawkes Bay vs Waikato (Wed 16 Aug)?
9 months ago
Just a bit late in posting this. I need to wait until after the weekend games to update my ratings for the Wednesday game, but I could have posted my prediction yesterday.
9 months ago