Posts from September 2023 (17)

September 11, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Ireland 17.04 15.46 1.60
South Africa 16.79 16.35 0.40
New Zealand 15.78 16.32 -0.50
France 13.02 12.48 0.50
Scotland 6.37 6.81 -0.40
England 4.88 4.22 0.70
Australia 3.32 2.63 0.70
Wales 1.22 0.75 0.50
Argentina 0.57 1.23 -0.70
Fiji 0.11 0.58 -0.50
Samoa -0.50 -0.50 -0.00
Georgia -3.25 -2.56 -0.70
Japan -5.19 -6.10 0.90
Italy -7.32 -8.84 1.50
Tonga -11.38 -11.38 -0.00
Portugal -13.61 -13.61 0.00
Namibia -14.70 -13.18 -1.50
Uruguay -15.47 -15.47 -0.00
Chile -16.05 -15.13 -0.90
Romania -18.60 -17.02 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 100%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 France vs. New Zealand Sep 08 27 – 13 3.20 TRUE
2 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 09 52 – 8 4.30 TRUE
3 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 09 82 – 8 32.50 TRUE
4 Australia vs. Georgia Sep 09 35 – 15 5.20 TRUE
5 England vs. Argentina Sep 09 27 – 10 3.00 TRUE
6 Japan vs. Chile Sep 10 42 – 12 9.00 TRUE
7 South Africa vs. Scotland Sep 10 18 – 3 9.50 TRUE
8 Wales vs. Fiji Sep 10 32 – 26 0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 France vs. Uruguay Sep 14 France 35.50
2 New Zealand vs. Namibia Sep 15 New Zealand 30.50
3 Samoa vs. Chile Sep 16 Samoa 15.50
4 Wales vs. Portugal Sep 16 Wales 14.80
5 Ireland vs. Tonga Sep 16 Ireland 28.40
6 South Africa vs. Romania Sep 17 South Africa 35.40
7 Australia vs. Fiji Sep 17 Australia 3.20
8 England vs. Japan Sep 17 England 10.10

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 11.55 8.72 2.80
Canterbury 9.67 9.44 0.20
North Harbour 5.41 7.75 -2.30
Auckland 5.34 2.15 3.20
Tasman 4.97 2.20 2.80
Bay of Plenty 4.23 4.55 -0.30
Waikato 0.70 3.71 -3.00
Hawke’s Bay 0.11 5.12 -5.00
Taranaki -0.47 -2.98 2.50
Otago -0.58 0.62 -1.20
Northland -4.36 -3.92 -0.40
Counties Manukau -6.74 -7.44 0.70
Southland -12.27 -12.27 0.00
Manawatu -14.07 -14.18 0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 47 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 08 24 – 41 -6.20 TRUE
2 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sep 09 39 – 29 8.10 TRUE
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 09 35 – 38 -0.60 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 09 36 – 29 -2.90 FALSE
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 10 29 – 48 -15.80 TRUE
6 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 10 18 – 29 -0.90 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 30 – 15 5.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Counties Manukau vs. Canterbury Sep 13 Canterbury -13.40

 

September 8, 2023

RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 1

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Team Ratings for Week 1

A long time coming but here are my predictions. No doubt many will disagree with my initial ratings. I try as far as possible to simply rely on data and avoid subjective judgements, and these ratings follow that rule as far as I have been able.

In this case I have had to make a number of decisions regarding ratings which are not based on data but my knowledge of the game, because the schedule of international games prior to the RWC is not like a normal league competition, where all teams play every other team pretty much the same number of times (AFL is actually a mild exception to this rule where some teams play each other once and others twice). The number of games any two teams in the RWC play each other prior to the Cup varies wildly. The European teams play each other regularly each year, while other teams have never played each other. (Chile and Portugal have never played the All Blacks as far as I am aware.) So my normal practice of starting at some early time point with all teams rated equal and running predictions forward and adjusting ratings up to the present time is not going to work when some teams never play or rarely play the top nations. As a consequence, my ratings are a bit of a hybrid. For the top 10 nations (the obvious suspects including Argentina and Italy), the ratings are based on all international games involving those countries from the end of RWC 2019 to now. For the remaining 10 countries, I arbitrarily set the initial ratings of Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Georgia, and Japan to be -10, Romania to be -15, and Chile, Portugal, Uruguay and Namibia to be -20, before running through all games they played against any other RWC 2023 finalists up to the present time. These choices were not entirely without any basis. For competitions where I have given predictions over a number of years, when a new team is added to a competition or a team is promoted, I have usually assigned a rating of -10 and found that works reasonably well.

Finally after combining the ratings, I have rescaled so that the average rating is 0.

Any informed follower of rugby may reasonably wish to make accommodation for factors they consider important: the recent change to eligibility allowing Pacific Island teams to include the likes of Charles Piutau is an obvious one.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
South Africa 16.35 16.35 -0.00
New Zealand 16.32 16.32 0.00
Ireland 15.46 15.46 -0.00
France 12.48 12.48 -0.00
Scotland 6.81 6.81 0.00
England 4.22 4.22 0.00
Australia 2.63 2.63 -0.00
Argentina 1.23 1.23 0.00
Wales 0.75 0.75 -0.00
Fiji 0.58 0.58 0.00
Samoa -0.50 -0.50 -0.00
Georgia -2.56 -2.56 0.00
Japan -6.10 -6.10 0.00
Italy -8.84 -8.84 -0.00
Tonga -11.38 -11.38 -0.00
Namibia -13.18 -13.18 0.00
Portugal -13.61 -13.61 0.00
Chile -15.13 -15.13 0.00
Uruguay -15.47 -15.47 -0.00
Romania -17.02 -17.02 0.00

 

Predictions for Week 1

Here are the predictions for Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 France vs. New Zealand Sep 08 France 0.20
2 Italy vs. Namibia Sep 09 Italy 4.30
3 Ireland vs. Romania Sep 09 Ireland 32.50
4 Australia vs. Georgia Sep 09 Australia 5.20
5 England vs. Argentina Sep 09 England 3.00
6 Japan vs. Chile Sep 10 Japan 9.00
7 South Africa vs. Scotland Sep 10 South Africa 9.50
8 Wales vs. Fiji Sep 10 Wales 0.20

 

September 7, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.72 8.72 2.00
Canterbury 10.44 9.44 1.00
North Harbour 5.05 7.75 -2.70
Auckland 4.57 2.15 2.40
Tasman 4.18 2.20 2.00
Bay of Plenty 3.96 4.55 -0.60
Waikato 1.53 3.71 -2.20
Hawke’s Bay 0.38 5.12 -4.70
Taranaki 0.31 -2.98 3.30
Otago -1.35 0.62 -2.00
Northland -3.60 -3.92 0.30
Counties Manukau -6.94 -7.44 0.50
Southland -12.07 -12.27 0.20
Manawatu -13.71 -14.18 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 06 27 – 24 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Waikato vs. Wellington Sep 08 Wellington -6.20
2 Counties Manukau vs. Southland Sep 09 Counties Manukau 8.10
3 Hawke’s Bay vs. Bay of Plenty Sep 09 Bay of Plenty -0.60
4 Auckland vs. Canterbury Sep 09 Canterbury -2.90
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Sep 10 North Harbour -15.80
6 Taranaki vs. Tasman Sep 10 Tasman -0.90
7 Otago vs. Northland Sep 10 Otago 5.30

 

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September 5, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.38 12.99 0.40
Storm 9.45 11.21 -1.80
Broncos 5.89 -5.92 11.80
Knights 4.12 -9.53 13.60
Sharks 3.53 4.50 -1.00
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Roosters 2.13 7.64 -5.50
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.06 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -5.02 1.98 -7.00
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 31 22 – 32 0.90 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 54 – 12 12.40 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 01 12 – 26 4.00 FALSE
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Sep 02 34 – 10 -4.20 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Sep 02 44 – 12 11.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 02 12 – 32 -6.30 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 34 – 30 9.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 03 24 – 6 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 Storm -0.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 Panthers 19.40
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 Sharks 4.40
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 Knights 12.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

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Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

September 4, 2023

Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Wellington 10.72 8.72 2.00
Canterbury 10.44 9.44 1.00
North Harbour 5.95 7.75 -1.80
Auckland 4.57 2.15 2.40
Tasman 4.18 2.20 2.00
Bay of Plenty 3.96 4.55 -0.60
Waikato 1.53 3.71 -2.20
Hawke’s Bay 0.38 5.12 -4.70
Taranaki 0.31 -2.98 3.30
Otago -2.25 0.62 -2.90
Northland -3.60 -3.92 0.30
Counties Manukau -6.94 -7.44 0.50
Southland -12.07 -12.27 0.20
Manawatu -13.71 -14.18 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 39 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northland vs. Hawke’s Bay Sep 01 44 – 21 -4.70 FALSE
2 Bay of Plenty vs. Otago Sep 02 38 – 14 6.70 TRUE
3 Canterbury vs. Taranaki Sep 02 29 – 28 15.20 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Waikato Sep 02 39 – 17 5.00 TRUE
5 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Sep 02 56 – 25 18.80 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Auckland Sep 03 13 – 41 -11.20 TRUE
7 Tasman vs. Manawatu Sep 03 58 – 19 18.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 North Harbour vs. Otago Sep 06 North Harbour 11.20

 

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