September 5, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 4

Team Ratings for Round 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.89 7.24 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 6.38 6.40 -0.00
Racing 92 4.44 3.42 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 3.52 4.07 -0.60
Stade Francais 3.25 2.62 0.60
Toulon 2.71 3.11 -0.40
Lyon 2.03 2.97 -0.90
Montpellier 1.67 2.09 -0.40
Clermont 1.14 1.47 -0.30
Castres Olympique 0.70 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.60 -0.44 1.00
Bayonne -1.31 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -5.77 -3.64 -2.10
US Oyonnax -8.63 -10.00 1.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 85.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Toulousain Sep 02 21 – 27 -9.40 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne Sep 03 37 – 0 6.70 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Sep 03 59 – 10 14.70 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Sep 03 40 – 10 3.40 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Sep 03 24 – 9 7.30 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Stade Rochelais Sep 03 11 – 10 1.30 TRUE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Sep 04 22 – 17 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 4

Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 29 Bayonne 1.90
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Oct 29 Lyon 7.40
3 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Oct 29 Montpellier 3.70
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Oct 29 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 29 Stade Toulousain 9.90
6 Toulon vs. US Oyonnax Oct 29 Toulon 17.80
7 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Oct 29 USA Perpignan 0.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »