Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6
Team Ratings for Round 6
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 6.13 | 6.82 | -0.70 |
| Sale Sharks | 5.39 | 6.46 | -1.10 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 5.37 | -0.89 | 6.30 |
| Harlequins | 4.88 | 1.93 | 3.00 |
| Leicester Tigers | 2.61 | 6.13 | -3.50 |
| Northampton Saints | 2.60 | 2.66 | -0.10 |
| Bath | 1.45 | -1.26 | 2.70 |
| Bristol | 0.82 | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| Gloucester | -5.43 | -1.45 | -4.00 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -13.07 | -10.63 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 25 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gloucester vs. Bath | Nov 11 | 27 – 45 | 2.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Sale Sharks | Nov 12 | 13 – 27 | 4.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Harlequins | Nov 12 | 25 – 29 | 5.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Saracens | Nov 13 | 12 – 50 | -8.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northampton Saints vs. Exeter Chiefs | Nov 13 | 34 – 19 | 0.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 6
Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bath vs. Bristol | Nov 18 | Bath | 6.60 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Newcastle Falcons | Nov 18 | Sale Sharks | 24.50 |
| 3 | Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints | Nov 19 | Leicester Tigers | 6.00 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Saracens | Nov 19 | Harlequins | 4.70 |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester | Nov 20 | Exeter Chiefs | 16.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »