AFL Predictions for Week 8
Team Ratings for Week 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 19.76 | 5.39 | 14.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.97 | 21.95 | -5.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 16.11 | 15.04 | 1.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.10 | 22.65 | -7.60 |
| Western Bulldogs | 14.51 | 18.20 | -3.70 |
| GWS Giants | 11.49 | 9.08 | 2.40 |
| Adelaide Crows | 11.33 | 2.69 | 8.60 |
| Sydney Swans | 9.37 | 12.60 | -3.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | 5.18 | 7.63 | -2.50 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.72 | 5.99 | -1.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 4.27 | 5.01 | -0.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.64 | 0.89 | -1.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | -2.17 | -6.41 | 4.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | -7.41 | -0.21 | -7.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -9.63 | -10.15 | 0.50 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.30 | -31.00 | -0.30 |
| North Melbourne | -35.03 | -37.08 | 2.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.03 | -34.67 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 53 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Lions vs. Collingwood | Apr 17 | 53 – 105 | 14.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Melbourne vs. Carlton Blues | Apr 18 | 71 – 153 | -32.70 | TRUE |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 18 | 75 – 77 | -16.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Melbourne Demons vs. Fremantle Dockers | Apr 19 | 107 – 97 | -3.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants | Apr 19 | 52 – 34 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Apr 19 | 80 – 69 | -22.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. Port Adelaide Power | Apr 20 | 77 – 85 | 19.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | Western Bulldogs vs. St Kilda Saints | Apr 20 | 127 – 56 | 6.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | Geelong Cats vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Apr 21 | 86 – 79 | -15.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 8
Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne Demons vs. Richmond Tigers | Apr 24 | Melbourne Demons | 23.90 |
| 2 | Collingwood vs. Essendon Bombers | Apr 25 | Collingwood | 29.40 |
| 3 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows | Apr 25 | Fremantle Dockers | 4.40 |
| 4 | St Kilda Saints vs. Brisbane Lions | Apr 26 | Brisbane Lions | -4.70 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. North Melbourne | Apr 26 | Port Adelaide Power | 51.20 |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Western Bulldogs | Apr 26 | GWS Giants | 8.00 |
| 7 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Sydney Swans | Apr 27 | Sydney Swans | -0.50 |
| 8 | Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats | Apr 27 | Geelong Cats | -0.80 |
| 9 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. West Coast Eagles | Apr 27 | Hawthorn Hawks | 63.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »