AFL Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 21.39 | 18.20 | 3.20 |
| Collingwood | 19.59 | 5.39 | 14.20 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.35 | 22.65 | -5.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 17.32 | 21.95 | -4.60 |
| Geelong Cats | 16.22 | 15.04 | 1.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 13.25 | 2.69 | 10.60 |
| GWS Giants | 7.74 | 9.08 | -1.30 |
| Sydney Swans | 7.69 | 12.60 | -4.90 |
| Carlton Blues | 2.70 | 5.01 | -2.30 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 1.97 | 5.99 | -4.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 1.03 | -6.41 | 7.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | 0.44 | 0.89 | -0.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -1.83 | 7.63 | -9.50 |
| Melbourne Demons | -6.55 | -0.21 | -6.30 |
| Essendon Bombers | -12.43 | -10.15 | -2.30 |
| North Melbourne | -30.73 | -37.08 | 6.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -32.25 | -31.00 | -1.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.29 | -34.67 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 71 matches played, 46 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. North Melbourne | May 01 | 65 – 62 | 21.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | St Kilda Saints vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 02 | 94 – 33 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 03 | 131 – 41 | 26.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Adelaide Crows vs. Carlton Blues | May 03 | 110 – 50 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. Geelong Cats | May 03 | 87 – 90 | 17.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Melbourne Demons | May 03 | 76 – 108 | -15.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sydney Swans vs. GWS Giants | May 04 | 87 – 73 | 2.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Richmond Tigers | May 04 | 109 – 44 | 46.70 | TRUE |
| 9 | Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 04 | 66 – 49 | 21.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood | May 08 | Collingwood | -6.60 |
| 2 | St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues | May 09 | Carlton Blues | -2.30 |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 10 | Hawthorn Hawks | -23.90 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | May 10 | Sydney Swans | -9.10 |
| 5 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs | May 10 | Western Bulldogs | -20.40 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | May 10 | Adelaide Crows | -15.10 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles | May 11 | Richmond Tigers | 14.00 |
| 8 | Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants | May 11 | Geelong Cats | 19.50 |
| 9 | North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions | May 11 | Brisbane Lions | -37.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »