AFL Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood | 20.47 | 5.39 | 15.10 |
| Western Bulldogs | 19.21 | 18.20 | 1.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 18.66 | 21.95 | -3.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 14.77 | 22.65 | -7.90 |
| Geelong Cats | 14.47 | 15.04 | -0.60 |
| Adelaide Crows | 12.04 | 2.69 | 9.30 |
| GWS Giants | 9.49 | 9.08 | 0.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 6.35 | 12.60 | -6.30 |
| Carlton Blues | 3.75 | 5.01 | -1.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 3.22 | -6.41 | 9.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 1.08 | 5.99 | -4.90 |
| St Kilda Saints | -0.60 | 0.89 | -1.50 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -0.62 | 7.63 | -8.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -7.88 | -0.21 | -7.70 |
| Essendon Bombers | -11.09 | -10.15 | -0.90 |
| North Melbourne | -28.14 | -37.08 | 8.90 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.25 | -31.00 | -2.20 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.30 | -34.67 | 0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Collingwood | May 08 | 83 – 97 | -6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | St Kilda Saints vs. Carlton Blues | May 09 | 62 – 77 | -2.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 10 | 56 – 91 | -23.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans | May 10 | 71 – 63 | -9.10 | FALSE |
| 5 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Western Bulldogs | May 10 | 106 – 96 | -20.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Adelaide Crows | May 10 | 84 – 89 | -15.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. West Coast Eagles | May 11 | 81 – 79 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Geelong Cats vs. GWS Giants | May 11 | 101 – 105 | 19.50 | FALSE |
| 9 | North Melbourne vs. Brisbane Lions | May 11 | 71 – 71 | -37.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 15 | Hawthorn Hawks | -15.40 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues | May 16 | Sydney Swans | 13.60 |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | May 17 | Collingwood | 19.40 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 17 | GWS Giants | 19.40 |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | May 17 | Geelong Cats | -4.10 |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | May 17 | Western Bulldogs | 30.30 |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne | May 18 | North Melbourne | -5.10 |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons | May 18 | Brisbane Lions | 33.70 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints | May 18 | St Kilda Saints | -22.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »