Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 17
Team Ratings for Round 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath | 9.86 | 5.55 | 4.30 |
| Leicester Tigers | 8.50 | 3.27 | 5.20 |
| Sale Sharks | 6.67 | 4.73 | 1.90 |
| Gloucester | 4.57 | -9.04 | 13.60 |
| Saracens | 4.47 | 9.68 | -5.20 |
| Bristol | 2.61 | 9.58 | -7.00 |
| Harlequins | -0.03 | -2.73 | 2.70 |
| Northampton Saints | -1.26 | 7.50 | -8.80 |
| Exeter Chiefs | -5.35 | 1.23 | -6.60 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -19.29 | -19.02 | -0.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 53 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks | May 10 | 44 – 34 | 7.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bristol vs. Bath | May 11 | 36 – 14 | -6.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | May 11 | 38 – 19 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | May 11 | 75 – 28 | 26.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Northampton Saints | May 12 | 42 – 14 | -4.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 17
Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester | May 17 | Gloucester | -17.40 |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Bristol | May 17 | Sale Sharks | 10.60 |
| 3 | Bath vs. Leicester Tigers | May 18 | Bath | 7.90 |
| 4 | Northampton Saints vs. Saracens | May 18 | Northampton Saints | 0.80 |
| 5 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | May 19 | Harlequins | 11.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »