AFL Predictions for Week 12
Team Ratings for Week 12
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 23.14 | 18.20 | 4.90 |
| Collingwood | 19.34 | 5.39 | 14.00 |
| Geelong Cats | 19.01 | 15.04 | 4.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.91 | 21.95 | -5.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 13.17 | 2.69 | 10.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.73 | 22.65 | -10.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 6.63 | 12.60 | -6.00 |
| GWS Giants | 5.96 | 9.08 | -3.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.97 | -6.41 | 11.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 4.61 | 5.99 | -1.40 |
| Carlton Blues | 3.46 | 5.01 | -1.60 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.98 | 0.89 | -4.90 |
| Melbourne Demons | -4.85 | -0.21 | -4.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -5.16 | 7.63 | -12.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -15.02 | -10.15 | -4.90 |
| North Melbourne | -28.28 | -37.08 | 8.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -30.92 | -34.67 | 3.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.12 | -31.00 | -2.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 89 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Hawthorn Hawks | May 15 | 104 – 96 | -15.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Carlton Blues | May 16 | 78 – 62 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Collingwood vs. Adelaide Crows | May 17 | 78 – 68 | 19.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Fremantle Dockers | May 17 | 61 – 95 | 19.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Geelong Cats | May 17 | 39 – 115 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Bulldogs vs. Essendon Bombers | May 17 | 127 – 36 | 30.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Richmond Tigers vs. North Melbourne | May 18 | 74 – 78 | -5.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Brisbane Lions vs. Melbourne Demons | May 18 | 88 – 99 | 33.70 | FALSE |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. St Kilda Saints | May 18 | 108 – 80 | -22.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 12
Here are the predictions for Week 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geelong Cats vs. Western Bulldogs | May 22 | Geelong Cats | 6.90 |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Richmond Tigers | May 23 | Essendon Bombers | 18.10 |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. GWS Giants | May 24 | Carlton Blues | 8.50 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Brisbane Lions | May 24 | Hawthorn Hawks | 16.20 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Collingwood | May 24 | Collingwood | -47.60 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Port Adelaide Power | May 24 | Fremantle Dockers | 20.80 |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. West Coast Eagles | May 25 | Adelaide Crows | 55.10 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Sydney Swans | May 25 | Sydney Swans | -0.50 |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns | May 25 | St Kilda Saints | 2.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »