United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 14.28 | 12.09 | 2.20 |
| Bulls | 11.68 | 8.83 | 2.90 |
| Stormers | 6.72 | 6.75 | -0.00 |
| Glasgow | 6.56 | 9.39 | -2.80 |
| Munster | 4.58 | 9.28 | -4.70 |
| Sharks | 3.47 | -2.94 | 6.40 |
| Edinburgh | 3.13 | 0.09 | 3.00 |
| Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Scarlets | -0.26 | -10.65 | 10.40 |
| Lions | -1.37 | 6.73 | -8.10 |
| Connacht | -1.88 | -0.76 | -1.10 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -2.01 | -2.55 | 0.50 |
| Ospreys | -2.18 | -2.51 | 0.30 |
| Benetton | -2.30 | 1.02 | -3.30 |
| Ulster | -4.44 | 2.52 | -7.00 |
| Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
| Zebre | -12.09 | -16.17 | 4.10 |
| Dragons | -18.16 | -15.41 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 144 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby | May 17 | 34 – 24 | 15.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Edinburgh vs. Ulster | May 17 | 47 – 17 | 10.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Munster vs. Benetton | May 17 | 30 – 21 | 13.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Dragons | May 18 | 55 – 15 | 34.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Lions vs. Ospreys | May 18 | 29 – 28 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Zebre vs. Connacht | May 18 | 12 – 22 | -3.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Scarlets | May 18 | 12 – 3 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 8 | Leinster vs. Glasgow | May 18 | 13 – 5 | 14.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Stormers | May 31 | Glasgow | 8.10 |
| 2 | Bulls vs. Edinburgh | May 31 | Bulls | 14.20 |
| 3 | Leinster vs. Scarlets | Jun 01 | Leinster | 28.20 |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Munster | Jun 01 | Munster | -6.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »