Top 14 Predictions for Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 14.74 | 8.76 | 6.00 |
| Toulon | 5.15 | 5.32 | -0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.98 | 3.96 | 0.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.47 | 4.85 | -2.40 |
| Clermont | 2.45 | 0.41 | 2.00 |
| Montpellier | 1.17 | -0.96 | 2.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.06 | -0.09 | 1.20 |
| Section Paloise | 0.70 | 1.38 | -0.70 |
| Racing 92 | 0.61 | 2.75 | -2.10 |
| Bayonne | -0.41 | -1.69 | 1.30 |
| Lyon | -0.48 | -0.18 | -0.30 |
| Stade Francais | -2.88 | 1.86 | -4.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.58 | -0.66 | -3.90 |
| Vannes | -8.26 | -10.00 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 175 matches played, 133 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. Bayonne | Jun 01 | 33 – 3 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Stade Francais | Jun 01 | 55 – 20 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Montpellier | Jun 01 | 25 – 27 | 8.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan | Jun 01 | 38 – 15 | 11.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Vannes vs. Section Paloise | Jun 01 | 26 – 52 | -1.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon | Jun 02 | 43 – 3 | 19.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles | Jun 02 | 27 – 10 | 6.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Toulon | Jun 08 | Bayonne | 1.90 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Vannes | Jun 08 | Bordeaux Begles | 18.40 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Jun 08 | Lyon | 5.40 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Jun 08 | Montpellier | 5.50 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais | Jun 08 | Section Paloise | 5.90 |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Jun 08 | Stade Francais | 3.00 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | Jun 08 | Stade Toulousain | -12.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »