AFL Predictions for Week 15
Team Ratings for Week 15
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 20.67 | 15.04 | 5.60 |
| Collingwood | 20.28 | 5.39 | 14.90 |
| Western Bulldogs | 19.90 | 18.20 | 1.70 |
| Adelaide Crows | 18.92 | 2.69 | 16.20 |
| Brisbane Lions | 14.37 | 22.65 | -8.30 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 12.92 | 21.95 | -9.00 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.32 | 5.99 | 2.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.34 | -6.41 | 10.80 |
| GWS Giants | 2.44 | 9.08 | -6.60 |
| Carlton Blues | 0.23 | 5.01 | -4.80 |
| Sydney Swans | -0.40 | 12.60 | -13.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.79 | -0.21 | -1.60 |
| St Kilda Saints | -3.28 | 0.89 | -4.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -4.49 | 7.63 | -12.10 |
| Essendon Bombers | -12.07 | -10.15 | -1.90 |
| North Melbourne | -26.66 | -37.08 | 10.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -32.33 | -31.00 | -1.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.76 | -34.67 | 0.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 113 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jun 05 | 59 – 81 | 11.80 | FALSE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 06 | 68 – 63 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 07 | 36 – 80 | -17.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Geelong Cats vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 07 | 61 – 37 | 19.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | GWS Giants vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jun 07 | 50 – 66 | 23.40 | FALSE |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 08 | 62 – 52 | -6.50 | FALSE |
| 7 | Carlton Blues vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 08 | 78 – 70 | 13.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Collingwood | Jun 09 | 71 – 72 | -25.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 15
Here are the predictions for Week 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 12 | Western Bulldogs | -23.20 |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 13 | Hawthorn Hawks | 5.00 |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants | Jun 14 | Brisbane Lions | 22.90 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 14 | Geelong Cats | -21.70 |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 14 | Fremantle Dockers | -46.00 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 15 | Port Adelaide Power | 8.30 |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 15 | Carlton Blues | -23.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »