AFL Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geelong Cats | 25.29 | 15.04 | 10.30 |
| Western Bulldogs | 23.17 | 18.20 | 5.00 |
| Collingwood | 20.28 | 5.39 | 14.90 |
| Adelaide Crows | 19.16 | 2.69 | 16.50 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 12.68 | 21.95 | -9.30 |
| Brisbane Lions | 11.97 | 22.65 | -10.70 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.56 | 5.99 | -0.40 |
| GWS Giants | 4.84 | 9.08 | -4.20 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.34 | -6.41 | 10.80 |
| Carlton Blues | 1.55 | 5.01 | -3.50 |
| Sydney Swans | -0.40 | 12.60 | -13.00 |
| Melbourne Demons | -3.10 | -0.21 | -2.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -3.18 | 7.63 | -10.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.55 | 0.89 | -7.40 |
| Essendon Bombers | -16.68 | -10.15 | -6.50 |
| North Melbourne | -23.90 | -37.08 | 13.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -32.33 | -31.00 | -1.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.08 | -34.67 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Kilda Saints vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 12 | 60 – 132 | -23.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 13 | 47 – 44 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brisbane Lions vs. GWS Giants | Jun 14 | 96 – 107 | 22.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Geelong Cats | Jun 14 | 56 – 151 | -21.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jun 14 | 67 – 73 | -46.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 15 | 93 – 68 | 8.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | West Coast Eagles vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 15 | 52 – 86 | -23.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 19 | Fremantle Dockers | 33.20 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 20 | Geelong Cats | 17.30 |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne | Jun 21 | Carlton Blues | 29.50 |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 21 | Port Adelaide Power | 8.20 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 21 | Collingwood | 30.80 |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 22 | GWS Giants | 11.50 |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 22 | Western Bulldogs | 59.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »