AFL Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 24.66 | 18.20 | 6.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 21.49 | 15.04 | 6.50 |
| Collingwood | 20.66 | 5.39 | 15.30 |
| Adelaide Crows | 19.16 | 2.69 | 16.50 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.77 | 22.65 | -6.90 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 12.68 | 21.95 | -9.30 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.49 | 5.99 | 0.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.88 | -6.41 | 11.30 |
| GWS Giants | 4.30 | 9.08 | -4.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 1.59 | 12.60 | -11.00 |
| Carlton Blues | -1.24 | 5.01 | -6.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -3.10 | -0.21 | -2.90 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -5.17 | 7.63 | -12.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.93 | 0.89 | -7.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -17.61 | -10.15 | -7.50 |
| North Melbourne | -21.12 | -37.08 | 16.00 |
| Richmond Tigers | -33.83 | -31.00 | -2.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -35.08 | -34.67 | -0.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 127 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Essendon Bombers | Jun 19 | 104 – 63 | 33.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions | Jun 20 | 51 – 92 | 17.30 | FALSE |
| 3 | Carlton Blues vs. North Melbourne | Jun 21 | 73 – 84 | 29.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Sydney Swans | Jun 21 | 52 – 71 | 8.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 21 | 108 – 74 | 30.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | GWS Giants vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jun 22 | 106 – 99 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Western Bulldogs vs. Richmond Tigers | Jun 22 | 135 – 56 | 59.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 26 | Port Adelaide Power | 7.10 |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 27 | Western Bulldogs | -12.10 |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 28 | Gold Coast Suns | 19.00 |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Jun 28 | Hawthorn Hawks | 37.80 |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 28 | Collingwood | 66.70 |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 29 | Adelaide Crows | -42.00 |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 29 | Fremantle Dockers | 24.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »