AFL Predictions for Week 18
Team Ratings for Week 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 24.30 | 18.20 | 6.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 21.49 | 15.04 | 6.50 |
| Adelaide Crows | 21.08 | 2.69 | 18.40 |
| Collingwood | 18.03 | 5.39 | 12.60 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.86 | 21.95 | -6.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.77 | 22.65 | -6.90 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.47 | 5.99 | -0.50 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 4.88 | -6.41 | 11.30 |
| GWS Giants | 4.30 | 9.08 | -4.80 |
| Sydney Swans | 1.96 | 12.60 | -10.60 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -2.24 | 7.63 | -9.90 |
| Melbourne Demons | -3.10 | -0.21 | -2.90 |
| Carlton Blues | -4.17 | 5.01 | -9.20 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.91 | 0.89 | -6.80 |
| Essendon Bombers | -17.61 | -10.15 | -7.50 |
| North Melbourne | -24.29 | -37.08 | 12.80 |
| West Coast Eagles | -32.45 | -34.67 | 2.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -35.75 | -31.00 | -4.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 134 matches played, 88 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues | Jun 26 | 110 – 60 | 7.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sydney Swans vs. Western Bulldogs | Jun 27 | 96 – 105 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 3 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Melbourne Demons | Jun 28 | 104 – 85 | 19.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. North Melbourne | Jun 28 | 150 – 65 | 37.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles | Jun 28 | 88 – 59 | 66.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Richmond Tigers vs. Adelaide Crows | Jun 29 | 54 – 122 | -42.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints | Jun 29 | 81 – 69 | 24.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 18
Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 03 | Western Bulldogs | -48.60 |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | Jul 04 | Collingwood | -22.20 |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | Jul 04 | GWS Giants | -25.80 |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 05 | Gold Coast Suns | -11.50 |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 05 | Geelong Cats | 68.20 |
| 6 | Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 05 | Brisbane Lions | 29.00 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 05 | Hawthorn Hawks | -21.80 |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 06 | Sydney Swans | 7.50 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 06 | Adelaide Crows | 35.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »