AFL Predictions for Week 19
Team Ratings for Week 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 24.34 | 18.20 | 6.10 |
| Geelong Cats | 21.94 | 15.04 | 6.90 |
| Collingwood | 20.42 | 5.39 | 15.00 |
| Adelaide Crows | 19.40 | 2.69 | 16.70 |
| Brisbane Lions | 15.65 | 22.65 | -7.00 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.65 | 21.95 | -6.30 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 7.01 | -6.41 | 13.40 |
| GWS Giants | 6.66 | 9.08 | -2.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 5.05 | 5.99 | -0.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 2.38 | 12.60 | -10.20 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.43 | -0.21 | -1.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -2.12 | 7.63 | -9.80 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.70 | 0.89 | -6.60 |
| Carlton Blues | -6.56 | 5.01 | -11.60 |
| Essendon Bombers | -19.74 | -10.15 | -9.60 |
| North Melbourne | -24.34 | -37.08 | 12.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -34.81 | -34.67 | -0.10 |
| Richmond Tigers | -36.20 | -31.00 | -5.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 143 matches played, 97 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 03 | 85 – 134 | -48.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Carlton Blues vs. Collingwood | Jul 04 | 59 – 115 | -22.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | West Coast Eagles vs. GWS Giants | Jul 04 | 52 – 111 | -25.80 | TRUE |
| 4 | Essendon Bombers vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 05 | 74 – 115 | -11.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 05 | 124 – 52 | 68.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Brisbane Lions vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 05 | 120 – 92 | 29.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 05 | 74 – 94 | -21.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sydney Swans vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 06 | 94 – 83 | 7.50 | TRUE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 06 | 90 – 77 | 35.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 19
Here are the predictions for Week 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 10 | Brisbane Lions | -11.20 |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jul 11 | Collingwood | -2.40 |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 12 | Western Bulldogs | 15.90 |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 12 | Geelong Cats | -4.30 |
| 5 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 12 | Essendon Bombers | -16.50 |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 12 | Fremantle Dockers | 0.40 |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne | Jul 13 | Melbourne Demons | 22.90 |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 13 | St Kilda Saints | 2.90 |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 13 | Port Adelaide Power | 43.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »