AFL Predictions for Week 20
Team Ratings for Week 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 22.37 | 18.20 | 4.20 |
| Adelaide Crows | 21.38 | 2.69 | 18.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 19.76 | 15.04 | 4.70 |
| Collingwood | 19.41 | 5.39 | 14.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 17.55 | 22.65 | -5.10 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 14.61 | 21.95 | -7.30 |
| GWS Giants | 8.84 | 9.08 | -0.20 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 8.02 | -6.41 | 14.40 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 6.08 | 5.99 | 0.10 |
| Sydney Swans | 3.33 | 12.60 | -9.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.36 | -0.21 | -0.20 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -3.50 | 7.63 | -11.10 |
| St Kilda Saints | -6.65 | 0.89 | -7.50 |
| Carlton Blues | -8.46 | 5.01 | -13.50 |
| Essendon Bombers | -21.62 | -10.15 | -11.50 |
| North Melbourne | -25.41 | -37.08 | 11.70 |
| West Coast Eagles | -33.43 | -34.67 | 1.20 |
| Richmond Tigers | -34.32 | -31.00 | -3.30 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 152 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 10 | 66 – 103 | -11.20 | TRUE |
| 2 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Collingwood | Jul 11 | 69 – 63 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 3 | Western Bulldogs vs. Adelaide Crows | Jul 12 | 98 – 109 | 15.90 | FALSE |
| 4 | GWS Giants vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 12 | 111 – 85 | -4.30 | FALSE |
| 5 | Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers | Jul 12 | 46 – 37 | -16.50 | FALSE |
| 6 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Jul 12 | 77 – 64 | 0.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Melbourne Demons vs. North Melbourne | Jul 13 | 119 – 83 | 22.90 | TRUE |
| 8 | St Kilda Saints vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 13 | 87 – 92 | 2.90 | FALSE |
| 9 | Port Adelaide Power vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 13 | 87 – 61 | 43.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 20
Here are the predictions for Week 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 17 | GWS Giants | -19.50 |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 18 | Brisbane Lions | 6.20 |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 19 | Hawthorn Hawks | 29.10 |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Jul 19 | Sydney Swans | 39.70 |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 19 | Melbourne Demons | -8.10 |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 19 | West Coast Eagles | 11.90 |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 20 | Geelong Cats | 37.40 |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 20 | Collingwood | 24.30 |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 20 | Adelaide Crows | 24.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »