AFL Predictions for Week 21
Team Ratings for Week 21
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 23.94 | 2.69 | 21.20 |
| Western Bulldogs | 21.91 | 18.20 | 3.70 |
| Geelong Cats | 18.99 | 15.04 | 4.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 18.01 | 22.65 | -4.60 |
| Collingwood | 17.54 | 5.39 | 12.20 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.68 | 21.95 | -6.30 |
| GWS Giants | 10.91 | 9.08 | 1.80 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 7.95 | 5.99 | 2.00 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 5.46 | -6.41 | 11.90 |
| Sydney Swans | 2.28 | 12.60 | -10.30 |
| Melbourne Demons | -1.64 | -0.21 | -1.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -4.56 | 7.63 | -12.20 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.88 | 0.89 | -6.80 |
| Carlton Blues | -7.19 | 5.01 | -12.20 |
| Essendon Bombers | -23.70 | -10.15 | -13.60 |
| North Melbourne | -24.36 | -37.08 | 12.70 |
| Richmond Tigers | -30.37 | -31.00 | 0.60 |
| West Coast Eagles | -37.38 | -34.67 | -2.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 161 matches played, 107 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Bombers vs. GWS Giants | Jul 17 | 56 – 104 | -19.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brisbane Lions vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 18 | 86 – 76 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 19 | 87 – 49 | 29.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne | Jul 19 | 84 – 53 | 39.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 19 | 78 – 70 | -8.10 | FALSE |
| 6 | West Coast Eagles vs. Richmond Tigers | Jul 19 | 56 – 105 | 11.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Geelong Cats vs. St Kilda Saints | Jul 20 | 113 – 82 | 37.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Collingwood vs. Fremantle Dockers | Jul 20 | 78 – 79 | 24.30 | FALSE |
| 9 | Adelaide Crows vs. Gold Coast Suns | Jul 20 | 107 – 46 | 24.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 21
Here are the predictions for Week 21. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 24 | Hawthorn Hawks | 22.90 |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 25 | Western Bulldogs | -45.60 |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 25 | GWS Giants | 12.60 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 26 | Brisbane Lions | -8.60 |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 26 | Fremantle Dockers | 45.30 |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 26 | Geelong Cats | -32.40 |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | Adelaide Crows | 28.50 |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. Collingwood | Jul 27 | Collingwood | -47.90 |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 27 | Melbourne Demons | -4.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Love the prediction for both NRL & AFL that come with their statistics.
May you also provide NRLW prediction.
Just asking.
5 months ago
I really love your NRL and AFL predictions with their statistics. May you also provide NRLW and super league. Just asking.
5 months ago