AFL Predictions for Week 22
Team Ratings for Week 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide Crows | 28.35 | 2.69 | 25.70 |
| Western Bulldogs | 25.10 | 18.20 | 6.90 |
| Geelong Cats | 23.36 | 15.04 | 8.30 |
| Collingwood | 16.11 | 5.39 | 10.70 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 15.81 | 21.95 | -6.10 |
| Brisbane Lions | 13.33 | 22.65 | -9.30 |
| GWS Giants | 13.15 | 9.08 | 4.10 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 10.14 | -6.41 | 16.60 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.39 | 5.99 | 2.40 |
| Sydney Swans | 0.04 | 12.60 | -12.60 |
| Melbourne Demons | -2.87 | -0.21 | -2.70 |
| St Kilda Saints | -4.65 | 0.89 | -5.50 |
| Carlton Blues | -7.32 | 5.01 | -12.30 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -8.98 | 7.63 | -16.60 |
| Essendon Bombers | -26.88 | -10.15 | -16.70 |
| North Melbourne | -28.73 | -37.08 | 8.40 |
| Richmond Tigers | -28.94 | -31.00 | 2.10 |
| West Coast Eagles | -37.82 | -34.67 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 170 matches played, 114 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Carlton Blues | Jul 24 | 85 – 61 | 22.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Essendon Bombers vs. Western Bulldogs | Jul 25 | 50 – 143 | -45.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | GWS Giants vs. Sydney Swans | Jul 25 | 102 – 58 | 12.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions | Jul 26 | 130 – 64 | -8.60 | FALSE |
| 5 | Fremantle Dockers vs. West Coast Eagles | Jul 26 | 126 – 77 | 45.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats | Jul 26 | 49 – 150 | -32.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Adelaide Crows vs. Port Adelaide Power | Jul 26 | 133 – 35 | 28.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Richmond Tigers vs. Collingwood | Jul 27 | 57 – 93 | -47.90 | TRUE |
| 9 | St Kilda Saints vs. Melbourne Demons | Jul 27 | 96 – 90 | -4.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 22
Here are the predictions for Week 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Jul 31 | Western Bulldogs | 22.90 |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 01 | Adelaide Crows | 23.50 |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 02 | Melbourne Demons | 46.00 |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 02 | Gold Coast Suns | 50.10 |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 02 | Sydney Swans | 37.90 |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 02 | Collingwood | 13.80 |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne | Aug 03 | St Kilda Saints | 24.10 |
| 8 | Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 03 | Geelong Cats | 43.30 |
| 9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 03 | Fremantle Dockers | 26.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »