AFL Predictions for Week 23
Team Ratings for Week 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs | 29.27 | 18.20 | 11.10 |
| Adelaide Crows | 27.21 | 2.69 | 24.50 |
| Geelong Cats | 26.39 | 15.04 | 11.40 |
| Hawthorn Hawks | 16.96 | 21.95 | -5.00 |
| Brisbane Lions | 16.13 | 22.65 | -6.50 |
| Collingwood | 13.31 | 5.39 | 7.90 |
| Gold Coast Suns | 12.54 | -6.41 | 19.00 |
| GWS Giants | 8.98 | 9.08 | -0.10 |
| Fremantle Dockers | 8.43 | 5.99 | 2.40 |
| Melbourne Demons | -0.28 | -0.21 | -0.10 |
| Sydney Swans | -1.75 | 12.60 | -14.40 |
| St Kilda Saints | -5.85 | 0.89 | -6.70 |
| Carlton Blues | -7.36 | 5.01 | -12.40 |
| Port Adelaide Power | -12.01 | 7.63 | -19.60 |
| Essendon Bombers | -25.10 | -10.15 | -15.00 |
| North Melbourne | -27.53 | -37.08 | 9.60 |
| Richmond Tigers | -31.34 | -31.00 | -0.30 |
| West Coast Eagles | -40.40 | -34.67 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 179 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Bulldogs vs. GWS Giants | Jul 31 | 132 – 44 | 22.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Adelaide Crows vs. Hawthorn Hawks | Aug 01 | 101 – 87 | 23.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Melbourne Demons vs. West Coast Eagles | Aug 02 | 139 – 56 | 46.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gold Coast Suns vs. Richmond Tigers | Aug 02 | 107 – 23 | 50.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sydney Swans vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 02 | 68 – 54 | 37.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions | Aug 02 | 65 – 92 | 13.80 | FALSE |
| 7 | St Kilda Saints vs. North Melbourne | Aug 03 | 78 – 69 | 24.10 | TRUE |
| 8 | Geelong Cats vs. Port Adelaide Power | Aug 03 | 153 – 65 | 43.30 | TRUE |
| 9 | Fremantle Dockers vs. Carlton Blues | Aug 03 | 94 – 67 | 26.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 23
Here are the predictions for Week 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood | Aug 07 | Hawthorn Hawks | 3.70 |
| 2 | Geelong Cats vs. Essendon Bombers | Aug 08 | Geelong Cats | 62.50 |
| 3 | Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints | Aug 09 | St Kilda Saints | -25.50 |
| 4 | Brisbane Lions vs. Sydney Swans | Aug 09 | Brisbane Lions | 28.90 |
| 5 | Carlton Blues vs. Gold Coast Suns | Aug 09 | Gold Coast Suns | -8.90 |
| 6 | Port Adelaide Power vs. Fremantle Dockers | Aug 09 | Fremantle Dockers | -9.40 |
| 7 | GWS Giants vs. North Melbourne | Aug 10 | GWS Giants | 47.50 |
| 8 | Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs | Aug 10 | Western Bulldogs | -29.60 |
| 9 | West Coast Eagles vs. Adelaide Crows | Aug 10 | Adelaide Crows | -56.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »