Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 2
Team Ratings for Week 2
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay of Plenty | 8.00 | 6.48 | 1.50 |
| Taranaki | 5.92 | 5.30 | 0.60 |
| Canterbury | 5.52 | 4.02 | 1.50 |
| Waikato | 5.28 | 5.46 | -0.20 |
| Wellington | 5.09 | 6.60 | -1.50 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 2.79 | 0.68 | 2.10 |
| Tasman | 1.96 | 3.49 | -1.50 |
| Auckland | 0.14 | -0.04 | 0.20 |
| North Harbour | -0.08 | 1.50 | -1.60 |
| Otago | -0.28 | -1.15 | 0.90 |
| Counties Manukau | -2.38 | -0.26 | -2.10 |
| Southland | -6.77 | -5.90 | -0.90 |
| Northland | -7.16 | -6.54 | -0.60 |
| Manawatu | -11.88 | -13.45 | 1.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland vs. Waikato | Jul 31 | 35 – 36 | -2.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Manawatu vs. North Harbour | Aug 01 | 38 – 25 | -11.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Canterbury | Aug 02 | 15 – 33 | 5.60 | FALSE |
| 4 | Southland vs. Otago | Aug 02 | 15 – 24 | -1.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Taranaki vs. Northland | Aug 02 | 23 – 3 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman | Aug 03 | 37 – 7 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 03 | 54 – 14 | 3.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 2
Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northland vs. Southland | Aug 08 | Northland | 2.60 |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Taranaki | Aug 09 | Taranaki | -3.00 |
| 3 | Waikato vs. Wellington | Aug 09 | Waikato | 3.20 |
| 4 | Tasman vs. Manawatu | Aug 09 | Tasman | 16.80 |
| 5 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Aug 09 | Canterbury | 8.40 |
| 6 | Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 10 | Bay of Plenty | -7.40 |
| 7 | Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay | Aug 10 | Hawke’s Bay | -0.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Tips for this week round 2
4 months ago
Hopefully Taniwha can get an at home win against Stags tonight. Last two matches saw Southland get the wins.
4 months ago