Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taranaki | 9.41 | 5.30 | 4.10 |
| Bay of Plenty | 7.38 | 6.48 | 0.90 |
| Canterbury | 6.35 | 4.02 | 2.30 |
| Wellington | 5.04 | 6.60 | -1.60 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.24 | 0.68 | 3.60 |
| Tasman | 3.87 | 3.49 | 0.40 |
| Waikato | 3.56 | 5.46 | -1.90 |
| Otago | 0.06 | -1.15 | 1.20 |
| Auckland | -1.56 | -0.04 | -1.50 |
| North Harbour | -2.08 | 1.50 | -3.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -2.39 | -0.26 | -2.10 |
| Southland | -7.28 | -5.90 | -1.40 |
| Northland | -7.72 | -6.54 | -1.20 |
| Manawatu | -12.71 | -13.45 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 21 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland vs. Manawatu | Aug 15 | 29 – 22 | 8.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bay of Plenty vs. Canterbury | Aug 16 | 7 – 21 | 6.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Northland vs. Tasman | Aug 16 | 14 – 28 | -6.90 | TRUE |
| 4 | Auckland vs. Taranaki | Aug 16 | 8 – 50 | -3.50 | TRUE |
| 5 | Hawke’s Bay vs. North Harbour | Aug 16 | 36 – 22 | 7.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Wellington vs. Otago | Aug 17 | 41 – 46 | 10.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 17 | 27 – 26 | 10.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bay of Plenty vs. Southland | Aug 21 | Bay of Plenty | 17.70 |
| 2 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Canterbury | Aug 22 | Hawke’s Bay | 0.90 |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Waikato | Aug 23 | Taranaki | 8.80 |
| 4 | North Harbour vs. Tasman | Aug 23 | Tasman | -3.00 |
| 5 | Auckland vs. Northland | Aug 23 | Auckland | 9.20 |
| 6 | Otago vs. Counties Manukau | Aug 24 | Otago | 5.50 |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Wellington | Aug 24 | Wellington | -14.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »