NRL Predictions for Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 10.33 | 9.29 | 1.00 |
| Panthers | 7.09 | 8.50 | -1.40 |
| Roosters | 6.44 | 7.44 | -1.00 |
| Sharks | 3.97 | 5.10 | -1.10 |
| Raiders | 3.36 | -3.61 | 7.00 |
| Broncos | 3.00 | -1.82 | 4.80 |
| Bulldogs | 2.88 | 0.07 | 2.80 |
| Sea Eagles | 0.64 | 2.97 | -2.30 |
| Dolphins | 0.36 | -1.96 | 2.30 |
| Warriors | -0.47 | -1.68 | 1.20 |
| Cowboys | -1.32 | 4.11 | -5.40 |
| Eels | -4.12 | -3.02 | -1.10 |
| Dragons | -4.20 | -4.55 | 0.40 |
| Rabbitohs | -4.50 | -4.35 | -0.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -7.40 | -10.97 | 3.60 |
| Knights | -7.76 | -0.05 | -7.70 |
| Titans | -8.30 | -5.50 | -2.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 188 matches played, 119 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Aug 21 | 40 – 0 | -0.40 | FALSE |
| 2 | Panthers vs. Raiders | Aug 22 | 16 – 20 | 4.60 | FALSE |
| 3 | Storm vs. Bulldogs | Aug 22 | 20 – 14 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins | Aug 23 | 58 – 30 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 23 | 18 – 32 | -3.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | Eels vs. Roosters | Aug 23 | 30 – 10 | -10.00 | FALSE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Broncos | Aug 24 | 12 – 46 | -5.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys | Aug 24 | 28 – 34 | -2.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bulldogs vs. Panthers | Aug 28 | Panthers | -1.20 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Eels | Aug 29 | Warriors | 7.10 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Roosters | Aug 29 | Storm | 6.90 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 30 | Raiders | 13.80 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 30 | Sea Eagles | -1.80 |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 30 | Broncos | -1.30 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Knights | Aug 31 | Sharks | 14.70 |
| 8 | Dolphins vs. Titans | Aug 31 | Dolphins | 11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »