Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bay of Plenty | 10.25 | 6.48 | 3.80 |
| Taranaki | 9.84 | 5.30 | 4.50 |
| Canterbury | 7.76 | 4.02 | 3.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.52 | 0.68 | 3.80 |
| Wellington | 3.04 | 6.60 | -3.60 |
| Otago | 2.94 | -1.15 | 4.10 |
| Counties Manukau | 2.78 | -0.26 | 3.00 |
| Tasman | 2.44 | 3.49 | -1.00 |
| Auckland | -0.65 | -0.04 | -0.60 |
| Waikato | -1.40 | 5.46 | -6.90 |
| North Harbour | -3.41 | 1.50 | -4.90 |
| Northland | -6.17 | -6.54 | 0.40 |
| Southland | -11.60 | -5.90 | -5.70 |
| Manawatu | -14.16 | -13.45 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 63 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Auckland | Sept 25 | 45 – 28 | 6.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Southland vs. Tasman | Sept 26 | 38 – 55 | -9.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Otago vs. North Harbour | Sept 27 | 41 – 26 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Taranaki vs. Wellington | Sept 27 | 39 – 20 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Waikato | Sept 28 | 41 – 5 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Counties Manukau vs. Manawatu | Sept 28 | 48 – 24 | 18.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Northland vs. Canterbury | Sept 28 | 19 – 19 | -12.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Harbour vs. Southland | Oct 03 | North Harbour | 11.20 |
| 2 | Auckland vs. Otago | Oct 04 | Otago | -0.60 |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Bay of Plenty | Oct 04 | Bay of Plenty | -4.20 |
| 4 | Waikato vs. Northland | Oct 04 | Waikato | 7.80 |
| 5 | Manawatu vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 04 | Hawke’s Bay | -15.70 |
| 6 | Tasman vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 05 | Tasman | 2.70 |
| 7 | Canterbury vs. Taranaki | Oct 05 | Canterbury | 0.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »