Top 14 Predictions for Round 8
Team Ratings for Round 8
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 11.51 | 11.56 | -0.10 |
| Toulon | 4.27 | 3.49 | 0.80 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.69 | 4.78 | -1.10 |
| Section Paloise | 3.41 | 2.21 | 1.20 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.34 | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| Clermont | 2.11 | 1.88 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 1.93 | 1.88 | 0.00 |
| Montpellier | 1.61 | -0.21 | 1.80 |
| Bayonne | 1.58 | 1.48 | 0.10 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.12 | 0.59 | -0.50 |
| Lyon | -0.48 | -0.45 | -0.00 |
| Stade Francais | -0.52 | -2.17 | 1.70 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.13 | -3.37 | -2.80 |
| Montauban | -12.55 | -10.00 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 49 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Clermont | Oct 19 | 44 – 17 | 4.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais | Oct 19 | 29 – 24 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Lyon | Oct 19 | 35 – 13 | 7.60 | TRUE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Oct 19 | 30 – 26 | -2.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Montauban | Oct 19 | 54 – 19 | 20.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Oct 19 | 45 – 21 | 7.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 19 | 12 – 27 | -2.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 8
Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne | Oct 26 | Bordeaux Begles | 8.60 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 26 | Clermont | 8.50 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais | Oct 26 | Lyon | 3.70 |
| 4 | Montauban vs. USA Perpignan | Oct 26 | Montauban | 0.10 |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise | Oct 26 | Racing 92 | 5.00 |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Oct 26 | Stade Francais | 4.40 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon | Oct 26 | Stade Toulousain | 13.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »