Top 14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 12.57 | 11.56 | 1.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.19 | 4.78 | -0.60 |
| Toulon | 4.10 | 3.49 | 0.60 |
| Section Paloise | 3.31 | 2.21 | 1.10 |
| Clermont | 3.03 | 1.88 | 1.10 |
| Stade Rochelais | 2.60 | 1.22 | 1.40 |
| Racing 92 | 1.77 | 1.88 | -0.10 |
| Montpellier | 1.47 | -0.21 | 1.70 |
| Stade Francais | 1.28 | -2.17 | 3.50 |
| Bayonne | 1.14 | 1.48 | -0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.76 | 0.59 | -1.40 |
| Lyon | -1.26 | -0.45 | -0.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.95 | -3.37 | -3.60 |
| Montauban | -13.61 | -10.00 | -3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise | Nov 22 | 33 – 34 | 8.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Nov 23 | 43 – 24 | 1.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montauban vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 23 | 7 – 49 | -18.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Bayonne | Nov 23 | 47 – 27 | 6.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 23 | 17 – 19 | 10.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Nov 23 | 0 – 28 | -0.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Toulon | Nov 24 | 51 – 24 | 2.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Lyon | Nov 30 | Bayonne | 8.90 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 30 | Castres Olympique | 12.70 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Stade Francais | Nov 30 | Clermont | 8.20 |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 30 | Montpellier | 3.80 |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 | Nov 30 | Stade Toulousain | 17.30 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Montauban | Nov 30 | Toulon | 24.20 |
| 7 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 01 | Section Paloise | 7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »