Posts from December 2025 (11)

December 30, 2025

NFL Predictions for Week 18

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Team Ratings for Week 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 8.75 1.60 7.20
Rams 7.84 3.32 4.50
Patriots 6.37 -6.88 13.30
Lions 5.74 9.26 -3.50
Texans 4.69 0.65 4.00
Packers 4.15 5.92 -1.80
Bills 4.03 8.28 -4.30
Ravens 3.36 11.27 -7.90
Chargers 3.31 2.67 0.60
49ers 3.15 -3.05 6.20
Eagles 2.95 12.46 -9.50
Jaguars 2.95 -6.28 9.20
Vikings 1.74 2.67 -0.90
Bengals 1.57 3.45 -1.90
Broncos 1.53 3.65 -2.10
Steelers 0.60 -0.33 0.90
Bears 0.29 -3.03 3.30
Chiefs -0.90 3.00 -3.90
Colts -0.96 -5.52 4.60
Falcons -1.08 -3.22 2.10
Cowboys -2.55 -3.23 0.70
Dolphins -2.76 0.72 -3.50
Saints -2.84 -5.63 2.80
Browns -3.23 -9.54 6.30
Giants -3.75 -7.54 3.80
Buccaneers -4.42 3.86 -8.30
Panthers -6.36 -7.28 0.90
Commanders -6.70 2.74 -9.40
Raiders -7.20 -5.45 -1.70
Titans -7.34 -9.40 2.10
Cardinals -7.81 0.58 -8.40
Jets -9.27 -3.87 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 256 matches played, 154 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 23 – 30 -1.70 TRUE
2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 23 – 10 -6.50 FALSE
3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 13 – 20 0.70 FALSE
4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 13 – 6 -5.20 FALSE
5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 17 – 23 -1.70 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 20 – 17 2.50 TRUE
7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 10 – 42 -10.90 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 26 – 34 -1.80 TRUE
9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 12 – 13 3.30 FALSE
10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 42 – 38 3.80 TRUE
11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 24 – 41 5.80 FALSE
12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 16 – 20 1.00 FALSE
13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 27 – 24 -10.50 FALSE
14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 10 – 27 -13.00 TRUE
15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 37 – 14 7.50 TRUE
16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 10 – 34 2.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 18

Here are the predictions for Week 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Falcons vs. Saints Jan 05 Falcons 2.80
2 Bills vs. Jets Jan 05 Bills 14.30
3 Bears vs. Lions Jan 05 Lions -4.50
4 Bengals vs. Browns Jan 05 Bengals 5.80
5 Broncos vs. Chargers Jan 05 Chargers -0.80
6 Texans vs. Colts Jan 05 Texans 6.70
7 Jaguars vs. Titans Jan 05 Jaguars 11.30
8 Rams vs. Cardinals Jan 05 Rams 16.60
9 Raiders vs. Chiefs Jan 05 Chiefs -5.30
10 Vikings vs. Packers Jan 05 Packers -1.40
11 Patriots vs. Dolphins Jan 05 Patriots 10.10
12 Giants vs. Cowboys Jan 05 Cowboys -0.20
13 Eagles vs. Commanders Jan 05 Eagles 10.60
14 Steelers vs. Ravens Jan 05 Ravens -1.80
15 49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 05 Seahawks -4.60
16 Buccaneers vs. Panthers Jan 05 Buccaneers 2.90

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.26 13.41 -4.10
Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70
Glasgow 8.69 6.18 2.50
Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40
Munster 4.18 3.65 0.50
Edinburgh 1.81 2.67 -0.90
Ulster 0.80 -3.24 4.00
Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00
Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50
Connacht -1.34 -1.39 0.00
Scarlets -2.07 -0.54 -1.50
Ospreys -2.62 -2.15 -0.50
Cardiff Rugby -2.81 -2.74 -0.10
Benetton -4.30 -2.32 -2.00
Zebre -11.84 -11.02 -0.80
Dragons -12.59 -15.66 3.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 22 – 19 13.00 TRUE
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 19 – 26 3.90 FALSE
3 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 23 – 37 -4.30 TRUE
4 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 3 – 21 -3.20 TRUE
5 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 24 – 29 1.20 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 8 – 13 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Scarlets Jan 02 Scarlets -8.50
2 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 02 Ospreys 2.20
3 Ulster vs. Munster Jan 03 Munster -1.40
4 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 04 Sharks 1.00
5 Stormers vs. Bulls Jan 04 Stormers 5.50
6 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Jan 04 Benetton 0.90
7 Leinster vs. Connacht Jan 04 Leinster 12.60
8 Glasgow vs. Zebre Jan 04 Glasgow 27.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 14.37 11.56 2.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.73 4.78 -0.10
Section Paloise 4.08 2.21 1.90
Toulon 3.14 3.49 -0.40
Clermont 2.83 1.88 0.90
Racing 92 2.49 1.88 0.60
Stade Rochelais 2.02 1.22 0.80
Montpellier 1.57 -0.21 1.80
Stade Francais 1.40 -2.17 3.60
Castres Olympique 0.21 0.59 -0.40
Bayonne -0.29 1.48 -1.80
Lyon -1.74 -0.45 -1.30
USA Perpignan -6.70 -3.37 -3.30
Montauban -15.23 -10.00 -5.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 91 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 28 35 – 34 5.30 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 28 36 – 22 7.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 28 34 – 19 3.80 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Montauban Dec 28 61 – 16 22.80 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Dec 29 35 – 33 10.00 TRUE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 29 60 – 14 17.10 TRUE
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Dec 29 31 – 16 16.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Racing 92 Jan 04 Bordeaux Begles 8.70
2 Lyon vs. Section Paloise Jan 04 Lyon 0.70
3 Montauban vs. Clermont Jan 04 Clermont -11.60
4 Montpellier vs. Bayonne Jan 04 Montpellier 8.40
5 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 04 Stade Francais 7.70
6 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 04 Stade Toulousain -14.60
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Toulon Jan 05 Stade Rochelais 5.40

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.90 10.30 0.60
Saracens 6.97 5.03 1.90
Leicester Tigers 4.52 5.55 -1.00
Bristol 4.49 3.66 0.80
Exeter Chiefs 3.98 -4.58 8.60
Sale Sharks 3.91 6.70 -2.80
Northampton Saints 3.59 -1.47 5.10
Gloucester -3.11 4.13 -7.20
Harlequins -6.36 -3.02 -3.30
Newcastle Red Bulls -21.03 -18.45 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 30 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Dec 27 43 – 17 15.60 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 28 36 – 27 36.50 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Dec 28 21 – 30 -1.90 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Dec 28 21 – 41 19.80 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 24 – 10 5.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Sale Sharks Jan 03 Bristol 7.60
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Gloucester Jan 03 Gloucester -10.90
3 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 04 Bath 13.90
4 Northampton Saints vs. Harlequins Jan 04 Northampton Saints 16.90
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Jan 05 Leicester Tigers 4.60

 

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December 24, 2025

NFL Predictions for Week 17

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Team Ratings for Week 17

This is a new competition for me. It took some time to get the data into the appropriate form and understand the game schedule. I was very surprised by the lack of any significant home ground advantage. After speaking to someone familiar with the game, I did add a special home ground advantage for the home team when the game was played on a Thursday. The logic for that was the reduced number of away fans who might travel on a Thursday and the limited time the away team might have to accustom to a different field. That said, I don’t see a big effect in the data for those games.

What is notable about the results is that these games are hard to predict. One marker for this is the limited range of the current ratings, despite there being 32 teams. For the current predictions, the range is 16.52 compared to 26.66 for the Rugby Premiership where there are only 10 teams.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Rams 9.12 3.32 5.80
Seahawks 8.19 1.60 6.60
Lions 7.49 9.26 -1.80
Packers 6.15 5.92 0.20
Bills 4.63 8.28 -3.70
Patriots 4.50 -6.88 11.40
Chargers 4.02 2.67 1.30
Texans 3.98 0.65 3.30
49ers 3.12 -3.05 6.20
Eagles 2.35 12.46 -10.10
Jaguars 2.35 -6.28 8.60
Steelers 1.77 -0.33 2.10
Ravens 1.37 11.27 -9.90
Broncos 0.44 3.65 -3.20
Bears 0.32 -3.03 3.40
Chiefs 0.18 3.00 -2.80
Bengals 0.13 3.45 -3.30
Vikings -0.01 2.67 -2.70
Colts -0.36 -5.52 5.20
Falcons -2.36 -3.22 0.90
Dolphins -2.83 0.72 -3.60
Cowboys -3.30 -3.23 -0.10
Saints -3.71 -5.63 1.90
Buccaneers -4.35 3.86 -8.20
Browns -4.40 -9.54 5.10
Raiders -4.97 -5.45 0.50
Panthers -5.80 -7.28 1.50
Commanders -5.95 2.74 -8.70
Giants -5.99 -7.54 1.50
Cardinals -6.37 0.58 -7.00
Titans -6.46 -9.40 2.90
Jets -7.40 -3.87 -3.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 240 matches played, 146 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Seahawks vs. Rams Dec 18 38 – 37 -0.30 FALSE
2 Ravens vs. Patriots Dec 21 24 – 28 -1.40 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Buccaneers Dec 21 23 – 20 -1.80 FALSE
4 Browns vs. Bills Dec 21 20 – 23 -10.00 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Chargers Dec 21 17 – 34 -3.80 TRUE
6 Saints vs. Jets Dec 21 29 – 6 0.80 TRUE
7 Giants vs. Vikings Dec 21 13 – 16 -5.70 TRUE
8 Titans vs. Chiefs Dec 21 26 – 9 -10.30 FALSE
9 Cardinals vs. Falcons Dec 21 19 – 26 -1.50 TRUE
10 Broncos vs. Jaguars Dec 21 20 – 34 2.10 FALSE
11 Lions vs. Steelers Dec 21 24 – 29 9.40 FALSE
12 Texans vs. Raiders Dec 21 23 – 21 13.00 TRUE
13 Dolphins vs. Bengals Dec 21 21 – 45 2.60 FALSE
14 Bears vs. Packers Dec 21 22 – 16 -7.40 FALSE
15 Commanders vs. Eagles Dec 21 18 – 29 -5.90 TRUE
16 Colts vs. 49ers Dec 22 27 – 48 1.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 17

Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Commanders vs. Cowboys Dec 25 Cowboys -1.70
2 Vikings vs. Lions Dec 25 Lions -6.50
3 Chiefs vs. Broncos Dec 25 Chiefs 0.70
4 Browns vs. Steelers Dec 28 Steelers -5.20
5 Colts vs. Jaguars Dec 28 Jaguars -1.70
6 Dolphins vs. Buccaneers Dec 28 Dolphins 2.50
7 Jets vs. Patriots Dec 28 Patriots -10.90
8 Titans vs. Saints Dec 28 Saints -1.80
9 Bills vs. Eagles Dec 28 Bills 3.30
10 49ers vs. Bears Dec 28 49ers 3.80
11 Packers vs. Ravens Dec 28 Packers 5.80
12 Chargers vs. Texans Dec 28 Chargers 1.00
13 Falcons vs. Rams Dec 29 Rams -10.50
14 Panthers vs. Seahawks Dec 29 Seahawks -13.00
15 Bengals vs. Cardinals Dec 29 Bengals 7.50
16 Raiders vs. Giants Dec 29 Raiders 2.00

 

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December 23, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 8.99 13.41 -4.40
Stormers 8.90 4.17 4.70
Glasgow 7.86 6.18 1.70
Bulls 5.42 8.86 -3.40
Munster 4.45 3.65 0.80
Edinburgh 2.64 2.67 -0.00
Ulster 0.12 -3.24 3.40
Lions -0.23 -1.19 1.00
Connacht -0.66 -1.39 0.70
Sharks -1.26 1.29 -2.50
Scarlets -1.41 -0.54 -0.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.19 -2.74 0.50
Ospreys -3.28 -2.15 -1.10
Benetton -4.90 -2.32 -2.60
Zebre -11.24 -11.02 -0.20
Dragons -13.21 -15.66 2.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 54 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 20 17 – 21 2.70 FALSE
2 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 20 24 – 20 11.90 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 34 – 27 12.30 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 21 21 – 15 9.00 TRUE
5 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 21 24 – 12 5.90 TRUE
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 21 21 – 12 -6.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Munster Dec 21 10 – 26 1.10 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Dec 21 48 – 28 -8.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Dragons Dec 27 Cardiff Rugby 13.00
2 Scarlets vs. Ospreys Dec 27 Scarlets 3.90
3 Bulls vs. Stormers Dec 28 Stormers -1.50
4 Lions vs. Sharks Dec 28 Lions 3.00
5 Zebre vs. Benetton Dec 28 Benetton -4.30
6 Edinburgh vs. Glasgow Dec 28 Glasgow -3.20
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Dec 28 Connacht 1.20
8 Munster vs. Leinster Dec 28 Leinster -2.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 13.48 11.56 1.90
Bordeaux Begles 5.15 4.78 0.40
Section Paloise 4.56 2.21 2.40
Toulon 3.23 3.49 -0.30
Stade Rochelais 2.90 1.22 1.70
Clermont 2.42 1.88 0.50
Racing 92 1.77 1.88 -0.10
Stade Francais 1.14 -2.17 3.30
Montpellier 1.09 -0.21 1.30
Bayonne -0.03 1.48 -1.50
Castres Olympique -0.17 0.59 -0.80
Lyon -1.36 -0.45 -0.90
USA Perpignan -6.79 -3.37 -3.40
Montauban -14.51 -10.00 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 21 19 – 41 -7.30 TRUE
2 Montauban vs. Section Paloise Dec 21 17 – 53 -11.00 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 21 33 – 31 8.50 TRUE
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Dec 21 20 – 20 6.70 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Dec 21 49 – 17 7.90 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Dec 21 26 – 20 -3.40 FALSE
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 22 46 – 7 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Dec 28 Bayonne 5.30
2 Castres Olympique vs. Lyon Dec 28 Castres Olympique 7.70
3 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 28 Clermont 3.80
4 Racing 92 vs. Montauban Dec 28 Racing 92 22.80
5 Section Paloise vs. Montpellier Dec 29 Section Paloise 10.00
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 29 Stade Toulousain 17.10
7 Toulon vs. USA Perpignan Dec 29 Toulon 16.50

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 13.66 10.30 3.40
Bristol 6.46 3.66 2.80
Saracens 6.38 5.03 1.30
Leicester Tigers 5.24 5.55 -0.30
Exeter Chiefs 3.26 -4.58 7.80
Sale Sharks 3.08 6.70 -3.60
Northampton Saints 0.84 -1.47 2.30
Gloucester -2.53 4.13 -6.70
Harlequins -5.53 -3.02 -2.50
Newcastle Red Bulls -23.00 -18.45 -4.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 26 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Dec 20 45 – 14 11.90 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks Dec 21 47 – 21 1.20 TRUE
3 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 21 24 – 30 12.90 FALSE
4 Harlequins vs. Bristol Dec 21 14 – 40 -1.40 TRUE
5 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Bath Dec 22 14 – 50 -28.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Dec 27 Sale Sharks 15.60
2 Bristol vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 28 Bristol 36.50
3 Gloucester vs. Saracens Dec 28 Saracens -1.90
4 Bath vs. Northampton Saints Dec 28 Bath 19.80
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 29 Exeter Chiefs 5.00

 

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December 2, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7

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Team Ratings for Week 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.51 13.41 -3.90
Stormers 9.49 4.17 5.30
Glasgow 7.18 6.18 1.00
Bulls 6.27 8.86 -2.60
Munster 3.53 3.65 -0.10
Edinburgh 3.32 2.67 0.60
Connacht 0.69 -1.39 2.10
Ulster -0.40 -3.24 2.80
Lions -0.82 -1.19 0.40
Cardiff Rugby -1.45 -2.74 1.30
Sharks -2.11 1.29 -3.40
Scarlets -2.15 -0.54 -1.60
Ospreys -2.35 -2.15 -0.20
Benetton -4.57 -2.32 -2.30
Zebre -11.57 -11.02 -0.60
Dragons -14.56 -15.66 1.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 46 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 29 10 – 24 -17.90 TRUE
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Nov 29 47 – 13 8.70 TRUE
3 Bulls vs. Lions Nov 30 33 – 43 11.30 FALSE
4 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 30 14 – 29 -1.60 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Nov 30 19 – 17 14.10 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Stormers Nov 30 21 – 27 2.10 FALSE
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Nov 30 44 – 17 7.80 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Nov 30 23 – 0 -5.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for Week 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Dec 20 Cardiff Rugby 2.70
2 Leinster vs. Ulster Dec 20 Leinster 11.90
3 Stormers vs. Lions Dec 21 Stormers 12.30
4 Benetton vs. Zebre Dec 21 Benetton 9.00
5 Glasgow vs. Edinburgh Dec 21 Glasgow 5.90
6 Sharks vs. Bulls Dec 21 Bulls -6.40
7 Ospreys vs. Munster Dec 21 Ospreys 1.10
8 Dragons vs. Connacht Dec 21 Connacht -8.20

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

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Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.97 11.56 1.40
Toulon 4.21 3.49 0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.18 4.78 -0.60
Section Paloise 3.77 2.21 1.60
Clermont 2.78 1.88 0.90
Stade Rochelais 2.14 1.22 0.90
Stade Francais 1.54 -2.17 3.70
Montpellier 1.48 -0.21 1.70
Racing 92 1.37 1.88 -0.50
Bayonne 0.73 1.48 -0.70
Castres Olympique -0.56 0.59 -1.20
Lyon -0.84 -0.45 -0.40
USA Perpignan -7.15 -3.37 -3.80
Montauban -13.72 -10.00 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 62 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Nov 30 22 – 20 8.90 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Nov 30 23 – 7 12.70 TRUE
3 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Nov 30 36 – 32 8.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 30 28 – 24 3.80 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Nov 30 48 – 24 17.30 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Montauban Nov 30 54 – 28 24.20 TRUE
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 01 53 – 33 7.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 21 Stade Toulousain -7.30
2 Montauban vs. Section Paloise Dec 21 Section Paloise -11.00
3 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Dec 21 Montpellier 8.50
4 Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 Dec 21 Stade Francais 6.70
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Dec 21 Stade Rochelais 7.90
6 USA Perpignan vs. Clermont Dec 21 Clermont -3.40
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Toulon Dec 22 Bordeaux Begles 6.50

 

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